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Tuesday 7 September 2010

Are you going to Scarbrough Fair ?

The Scarbrough Stakes over 5f at Doncaster could well be decided by the weather as the going on tuesday afternoon was Good to Soft and there are some heavy bursts of rain about. A look at the previous form of the field shows there is nothing that has excelled on a softish surface in the past.
I think the ones to concentrate on though are Group Therapy, Tax Free, Captain Dunne and Rose Blossom.
If the latter goes off like a scalded cat again she will find it difficult to get home, especially if the going gets any softer. She was lit up by a first time visor at York in the Nunthorpe and she has first time cheek pieces here, so its likely she will be tanking along again, her sire Pastoral Pursuits did win the July Cup on Good to Soft.
Geoup Therapy has improved for Noseda and he has campaigned him well this summer but he too may have going issues being by Chosir. He is a class act though and he may still have improvement to come with his 1/2 length 2nd to Borderlescott last time out being the best of his form to date.
The yielding ground could play into the hands of Tax Free as he does have form in those conditions. He posted a better effort last time out in Ireland when 2 lengths behind the improving Astrophysical Jet and Nicholls should have him ready to do himself justice.
Captain Dunne by Captain Rio who was out of Pivotal should not be inconvenienced by the going but he may be striving a bit too far and a place is the best he can do at 8/1.
Im not taken by any of the others although I will probably be mugged by one of them on the line.
Overall its a difficult race to call, particularly with the going begining to change and if I were to get involved I would stick with the 2 at the head of the market Tax Free and Group Therapy and also throw in a reverse exacta.