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Tuesday 26 April 2011

Make sure you get Value !

Newcastle 8.10 Sendrig Construction Handicap (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 6f

The going at Newcastle is Good to Firm, Firm in places and there are 3 or 4 of interest in this. We start with King of Eden who features in our Horses to Follow section. He has been very progressive for his trainer and started the season with another win, this time over 7f and this stiff 6f should hold no fears, his trainer Eric Alston said last year that King of Eden would be better in 2011 and on his last run he would appear to have been proved correct. He is a big horse that shows a bit of acceleration when needed and he looks one of the improvers in the field only having had 15 races to date.
Invincible Lad is supposedly better at 5f but he didnt run too badly when 3rd to Lucky Numbers over 6f at Ripon last time out when beaten 1 1/4 lengths, he has form on fast ground and he was 3rd to Astrophysical Jet at Newmarket last July when in receipt of 4lb from the winner. If Nicholls can recapture that sort of previous form (and when has he not done that) then off a 5lb lower mark he should be thereabouts. although this stiff 6f could well stretch him to the limit.
Marvellous Value ran in Division 1 of the above handicap contested by Invincible Lad and his race was run in a time 0.77 seconds faster although he could only finish 4th behind Cape Vale. He did have a bit of a rough race there and he could fare better this time particularly as his trainer thinks he is favourably treated on turf in any event. He was 5th in the 2008 Ayr Gold Cup off a mark of 92 on only his seventh start so that shows he is smart on his day and off  only 78 here you can understand why his trainer thinks he's favourably treated. This will only be his 15th start to date, he was won over the course and distance on fast ground and off a fast pace so he must be bang there in my view.
There are others in the race but I can see the finish being fought out between the one's mentioned and Marvellous Value looks to have the best chance in receipt of 3lb from King of Eden. With none of the bookmakers having priced up by 9.00pm on Tuesday it will be interesting to see what view they take of the race.

In the 4.15 at Ascot Madany could run better than her price as she was unlucky at Newmarket last time when 2nd to Sir Reginald. The race was run in a decent time there and the stable report that she has come out of the race in good form as she seeks some black type and the 7/1 with Ladbrokes is a fair price given that the front two in the betting are entered in the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot.