**KNOW THE BEST HORSES IN TRAINING (BEFORE THEY RACE!)**
Thursday 7 April 2011
Up a bit, down a bit - 7th April 2011
Hope all of you were on Lucky Numbers a 7/1 winner for the blog on Thursday afternoon.
This week saw the start of the turf flat season and at Musselburgh on Friday 1st April the Class 4 Handicap over 5f went to Nadeen who won by half a length from Verinco, the winner could be open to a bit of improvement and has only been raised 4lb as a result of this win. He had the best of the draw but didnt need to make use of it as he made his way home away from the rail. One we mentioned a lot last year was Oldjoesaid but he never obliged, however his stable have made a good start to the season and his 3rd placing here off 79 could give us some hope of a revival.
At Doncaster on Saturday
The Cammidge Trophy
over 6f went to Jimmy Styles by 1 1/4 lengths from Iver Bridge Lad, the second has of course since won during the week in taking fashion. Jimmy Styles has been bumped up 8lb for this to 107 and is reported to be going for the Abernant at Newmarket next. The one that caught my eye was
who ran on very well from the back to finish 4th and he remains on a mark of 102. Others to note were Royal Rock and Prime Defender who were both dropped 2lb to 103 and 107 respectively. Bated Breath got no sort of run and was nearly on the deck at one stage so this run can be forgotten for him.
Time of race - 1m 12.38s slow by 0.98
Trainers Post Race Comments
had this to say about Royal Rock on his website "He was a sick horse last spring and never quite got over it last year. Judged on his recent work, I thought he was in better shape going into this race and I was very pleased with the way he ran, particularly as I don’t think the race was run to suit him. The runners raced tightly against the stands rail and, from his high draw, George Baker found himself shuffled much further back than he wanted to be. As a result, he didn’t see much daylight until the final 1½f, which really wasn’t ideal as he is a horse that needs time to build up a bit of momentum. Once in the clear, he ran on well but was never going to peg the race-fit leaders back, eventually finishing 6th but only beaten around 4½ lengths. He certainly showed enough to tell us that he is back to something like his best. In terms of his next target, I have no firm plans at the moment but possibilities include the Abernant Stakes at Newmarket next week, although this may come a bit too soon for him, or a Group 3 in Germany towards the end of the month".
stable had this too say about Prime Defender "He was far too fresh and keen in his race following his winter break, and basically ran out of puff in closing stages. This race will have brought him on and the plan is to run him next at the Craven Meeting in the Abernant Stakes"
said this about Bated Breath "Unfortunately it was one of those days when not much went right for Bated Breath, there was a lack of pace and being drawn one off the rails (13 of 14) there seemed to be little chance of getting any racing room after the field headed towards the stand rails. Several times he was stopped in his run and perhaps his lack of experience against a lot of battle hardened sprinters was noticeable. Hopefully he can bounce back in the future".
said this about Jack My Boy "He made a pleasing reappearance in the Cammidge Trophy at Doncaster and looks one worth following this season. He led to the furlong marker before fading but it was an encouraging run and we are hopeful of picking up a good handicap with him. He seems fully recovered from the setback he had last season".
- Lovelace "He ran well in the Cammidge, which was probably a little on the sharp side, but we wanted to get the rust off him, he'll win a good race this year".
- Fitz Flyer "Ran much too free and he struck into himself on his first run for me at Southwell. There's a conditions race at Musselburgh coming up which I won with Moorhouse Lad last season and should suit him. Big horse that wants decent ground."
Handicappers blog comments
"It’s hard to imagine that having been at Ayr to witness Jimmy Styles win the 2009 Ayr Gold Cup that it would be another eighteen months before he found his way back into the winner’s enclosure, writes Stewart Copeland. However he put that barren patch behind him in fine style with an impressive success in the 6f listed williamhill.com Cammidge Trophy at Doncaster on Saturday.
Always travelling well off the pace, he made his move over a furlong out before leading inside the last, winning by a length and a quarter from the consistent Iver Bridge Lad, with Brave Prospector a further length back in third.
The race itself was a somewhat messy affair, the field still in a heap against the stand rail two furlongs out and several meeting plenty of trouble in running when trying to improve their position, including the lightly raced favourite, Bated Breath.
That shouldn’t detract too much from Jimmy Styles’ performance though as this clearly signalled a return to the form he showed when winning the Ayr Gold Cup. As my colleague Graeme Smith touched on last week the use of standards is another tool we use in assessing races, along with form and time, and this running of the Cammidge looks at least on a par with what I’d usually expect.
Over the last five years the average figure for the winner has been around 107 – the notable exception being Les Arcs in 2006 who recorded a rating of 113 when the race was run at Redcar – and I’ve no reason to think that Jimmy Styles isn’t worthy of such a rating based on that historical evidence, and the form of the horses he beat on Saturday.
Rated 106 after winning the Ayr Gold Cup, this marginally represents a career best effort and his next port of call is reportedly the Abernant Stakes at Newmarket’s Craven meeting.
This weekend see's the return to the track in Australia of Black Caviar who is the worlds top rated racehorse according to the World Thoroughbred Rankings and she bids to extend her unbeaten winning run to 12 in Sydney. You may ask why do I keep going on about this horse, well if you look at some of the re runs of her wins you will see she is nothing short of phenomenal.
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