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Thursday 18 August 2011

Nunthorpe Speed Test !

I have always liked this race and watching Dayjur win it all those years ago was an awesome sight that really got me hooked on sprinters. If you havent seen that race then take time to seek it out on You Tube,when watching you will think Dayjur is going fast mid race and then he seems to engage overdrive to power away !
Oh well onto tomorrows event which looks like it is to be run on easy going and with more rain appearing to hit the region again earlier this evening a check on the going in the morning is strongly advised as it has already seen the withdrawal of Sole Power. The race itself looks set to be run at a fast tempo as Captain Dunne, Hamish Mcgonagal, Masamah, Hoof It and Picadilly Filly will all be to the fore.
Going through the field then we start with Bated Breath who was second in the July Cup to Dream Ahead ( he was beaten 7 1/4 lengths into 7th in the Prix Maurice De Gheest in France last time out) and its hard to believe that this is still just Bated Breaths 11th career start. He’s never really performed that well with give in the ground and 5f is not likely to suit either, this being his first run over that distance. He may be thereabouts at the end but I cant see him winning despite him being the best sprinter Roger Charlton has trained.
Hoof It is fav and probably rightly so after his brilliant win in the Stewards Cup which had everyone coming out with superlatives about his performance and that this had to be the target for his next race. He’s won 4 of his last 5 races but he hasnt run over 5f since last September when he was 2nd to Cheveton on Soft at Haydock off a mark of 90. He has improved since then and he would have had to because that wouldnt be good enough to win here, however that said he can go a good lick and looks sure to be in first 3.
Masamah has been staeadily improving all season and like Hoof It this will be his biggest test to date, although he did win a Group 2 last time. He does have plenty of pace about him and like Dayjur who we touched on above he has the ability to move up another gear and this is also his distance as he has won 7 times over 5f. He did win a Listed Race over 6f at Chester on Good to Soft last August when he beat Quest for Success but I doubt he would want it to get too soft.
Prohibit has already run 9 times this season, however he seems to thrive on his racing and his last run was his best to date when beating Star Witness in the Kings Stand. Im not convinced though that he is good enough although he has been running consistently well and I just cant seem to get away from him being a hadicapper for so long. He will act on whatever the going I would have thought and the strong pace in the race is likely to suit.
2yo’s are virtually thrown in at the weights in this race and in my view it spoils it when they take part as they have such a big advantage and anything with half decent form has to be respected. Requinto won the Molecomb last time out in 57.51secs and if you compare that with the Class 3 handicap won later that day by Secret Asset(OR 89) in a time 57.57 it gives you an idea of how much he will be helped by the 21lb he receives off half of the field. This will only be his 6th start so he is open to of improvement as he is already 3-3 over 5f and is another who looks like being in the first 3 home with the slower ground likely to help him keep tabs with the speedsters on the pace.
The best of the french sprinters are not usually good enough as we have seen in their own back yard at Longchamp were the British have dominated the Prix De l’Abbaye for many years now, so although Wizz Kid beat Prohibit at Chantilly over 5f on Soft (Inxile 3rd and Hamish McGonagall 4th) I personally dont think he will be good enough here.
Inxile himself has been running very well away from home for the Nicholls stable winning 5 times this season alreadyand he is their only entry. Picadilly Filly was third in this last season losing the lead in the final furlong and she is probably good value if you fancy a punt on an outsider.
For me though I think the finish will be between Hoof It, Requinto and Masamah in that order.

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