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Wednesday 5 June 2013

Up a bit, down a bit - 5th June 2013

Time stops for no man and we are into June already which means Royal Ascot is on the horizon, The blog has had some good results lately and Duke Of Firenze was another big winner last Saturday, however as usual I am suffering from a lack of community spirit from the followers of my blog in that although you are all keen to see what I'm selecting you are not so keen to click the donate button above, which is a shame for you followers as it means I'm less likely to share all the information that I have, but on the plus side for me it's more betting profits !

I'm off to Haydock racing on Friday evening and there is a decent listed sprint at 8.15 with Jiroft, Nocturnal Affair and Doc Hay going to post amongst others. Jiroft looks sure to set a very good pace having run well at Epsom in the Dash for Robert Cowell and he may improve further on this second run for the sprint trainer. In addition I have a share in one of the 2yo's in the 7.45 so hoping for a run of promise there.

Anyway on to last weeks improvers and we start with Leicester on Monday 27th May where Equity Risk beat Sejalaat by 1 1/2 lengths in the Class 4 Handicap over 6f with a neck back to Rene Mathis back in third. The first 3 had topspeed figures of 84, 80 and 80 and they have been raised in finishing order by 7lb to 84, 3lb to 82 and 2lb to 82.Neil Callan reprted that there is more to come from the winner.

Over at Windsor Marco Botti's March beat The Art Of Racing by half a length recording a topspeed of 87 and he has been raised 4lb to a rating of 86, the second is up 2lb to 84. Marco Botti revealed that the winner is capable of improving again and may eventually get some black type so there is some room for that with the rating.

At Beverley on Wednesday Hamza won what was effectively a match with Heeraat as they were the best two in the race and he did so by 1 1/4 lengths in a good time recording a topspeed of 94. The second had a topspeed of 89 and both look capable of continuing there run of good form in the coming weeks.

A claimer features this week because Racy in winning the 4 runner Class 6 Claimer recorded a decent topspeed of 88 in beating Noverre To Go by 3 1/4 lengths and he has now been switched to Brian Ellison's stable and he remains on a rating of 91.

On Friday at Goodwood the 6f fillies handicap went the way of Links Drive Lady by 3/4 of a length from Picabo with a head to Charlotte Rosina in third. The winner recorded a topspeed of 88 and has been raised 4lb to 85, the second TS96 and is up 1lb to 93 and the third TS92 and is up 1lb to 90. Fallon was impressed with the winner and Dean Ivory's charge should be capable of winning again as she was produced to win where it matters.

On Saturday it was the Dash at Epsom and looking at the topspeed ratings for the race 14 of the 17 runners recorded figures above 84 with Ballesteros (TS84), who finished last, being dropped 2lb which always makes me wonder how this fits in with other sprints such as the 6f Class 2 Handicap on the same card where   not one of the 16 runner field recorded a topspeed figure of above 64 yet the winner has been raised 5lb - ie1lb more than the winner of the Dash - who recorded a TS of 102.
Below are the comments of the BHB Handicapper on their blog post :


One of the feature 5f handicap races of the season is the Investec Dash at Epsom on Derby day. It is usually an action packed race and the 2013 renewal was no different, writes Chris Nash.

The race was a cracking spectacle and produced a finish where the result only took shape in the last 30 yards. This contest is famed as a speed test and is frequently won by horses ridden handy – indeed the last three winners (Stone Of Folca, Captain Dunne and Bertoliver) were all ridden in that way. Deep inside the final furlong it looked like that pattern would be repeated with Fair Value in front and seemingly in control only to be swamped late on by horses who rocketed home from nowhere. Duke Of Firenze took the spoils by a neck from Smoothtalkinrascal with a further neck back to Dinkum Diamond. Fair Value crossed the line in fourth just a short-head behind the third and the first 12 home were covered by less than three lengths – a handicappers delight.

The first two were still in the last four at the furlong marker and the way they scythed through the field made tremendous viewing. Duke Of Firenze ran off a mark of 97 and the narrow margin of his victory means that he can only be reassessed 4lb higher to 101. Smoothtalkinrascal was burdened with a penalty for winning his previous race at York and so lined up off 103 even though his current rating was only 100. He will be raised to 106. Both horses have shown progressive form this season and both returned career best efforts on Saturday. As has been pointed out in this feature on a few occasions the difference between top class sprint handicap form and the level required to be competitive in Listed and Group races is very marginal and there is every chance that the first two will make their mark at a higher level before the season is out. The presence of Dinkum Diamond in third gives substance to that argument as in 2011 he was placed four times in Listed sprints and once in a Group 3 reaching a peak rating of 108. His run on Saturday will see him rated 103. Fair Value goes up 1lb from 90 to 91 and the nature of the finish means that only slight alterations (if any) are needed to the ratings of the 5th – 12th placed finishers.

Finally at Chantilly on Sunday Robert Cowell's Spirit Quartz won the Group 2 Prix Du Gros-Chene by half a length from Catcall and in doing so recorded a topspeed of 99.