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Sunday 31 May 2015

Nottingham Sprint


Hi everyone - no posts for a short while, so sorry about that. However I've been doing well over the last few days having gone through the card at Newmarket on Friday I'm ready to tackle some sprint races today at Nottingham.

There has been rain overnight and the going has changed to Good from Good to Firm, Firm in places. Showers are forecast for the remainder of the day as can be seen from the met office rainfall radar map. The going is essentially the same as last weeks meeting here, The turftrax reading being 8.0. You will need to check which way the wind is blowing as if its head on it will favour those held up.

The stalls are situated on the stands side for the 5f races, high numbers are nearest the rail. The course has minor undulations and generally speedy, handy types are favoured.

3.45 ODDS ON FAVOURITE DG TAXIS 01159500500 HANDICAP - 5f 13yds - cLASS 3

Van Ellis and Royal Mezyan are non runners.

Draw order as you will look at them is as follows :

  1 - Borderlescott - Prominent
  2 - Blithe Spirit - Prominent
  3 - Rusty Rocket - Prominent
  4 - Sleepy Sioux - Held Up
  5 - Judge N'Jury - PACE
  6 - It Must Be Faith - Prominent
  7 - Free Zone - Held Up
  8 - Top Boy - Held Up
  9 - Double Up - Held Up
10 - Burning Thread - Prominent
11 - NR - stall will move up 1
12 - NR - stall will move up 1
13 - NR - stalls will move up 1 closer to rail
14 - Harrogate Fair - Prominent

Powerful Wind was able to get to the rail from stall 8 of 11 LTO at Chepstow and bagged the rail to lead all the way and it looks as though he will be able to do that today, however that was a Class 5 veterans handicap and he had a lot in his favour so he may not be able to dominate this field as much. He is up 5lb in the ratings but has a 7lb Claiming Jockey on board. The time was 58.19s with a top speed figure of 70.
Judge N'Jury, for the same stable, has 3 horses to his inside who are usually held up so he should also be able to get across towards the rail with Powerful Wind. He is 11 and contested a Class 3 LTO returning from a 210 day break and finished 3rd. That was on similar going to today where he led and raced against near side rail, was ridden 2f out and was headed and one pace 1f out. The time of the race was 59.55s and he recorded a top speed figure of 75, he was beaten 2 lengths. He is however 6lb lower than his last win which was over this course and distance in a Class 3 Handicap on similar going to today, which he won by 4 lengths drawing clear from 2f out and keeping on strongly in a time of 1m 0.4s which was 0.26s slower than last weeks Class 5 over C&D.
Double Up is the short priced favourite on the basis of his win at Newmarket in a Class 4 where he faced just 5 others. The race was run in a time of 57.44s with a speed figure of 75 and its a case of whether they will be going fast enough for him today as today's race will be about 2.5 secs slower. He wasn't slowly away as described by race readers, he was close up from the start. They had the benefit of a fresh wind behind and the field parted like the Red Sea for Double Up who ran on to win convincingly with It Must Be Faith beaten in 5th. I would be surprised if he gets an easy run through today as I would imagine the field will be spread out across this side of the track come th efinal furlong and he may have to wait to get a run but he certainly has the potential to improve further.
One who I think is well drawn in stall 10 is Burning Thread whose last win came off a mark of 90 in a Class 3, he is rated 87 today and Tim Clark claims 5lb. He was having his first run of the season last time out for his new trainer David Elsworth who has been in fine form of late and he was drawn in stall 2 of 15 at York in a Class 2 Handicap, winning time 57.50s. He was pretty isolated on the far side for most of that race and finished 5 1/2 lengths behind Out Do in a race that has worked out well since. If he progressed from that then he will go very close. The only negative may be the going as he usually likes it a bit faster than he will get today, but it was Good ground at York (6.4) so it may not be a problem.
Rusty Rocket, Blithe Spirit and Harrogate Fair will be praying for more rain but should run well in any event as will the 13yo Borderlescott, but its Burning Thread for me who is a best priced 9/1.

Now the going has changed to Good to Soft, Good in places you will need to consider Rusty Rocket, Blithe Spirit and Harrogate Fair as the this will have enhanced their chances and there may be more non runners as they afternoon goes on. The going change may be a negative for the Fav Double Up.