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Wednesday 24 January 2018

Head for the Tropics!

Another tight knit handicap on the AW at 7.00 on Thursday at Chelmsford.
This one may prove more difficult to find the winner than the other day at Southwell as nothing particularly stands out.

RECKLESS ENDEAVOUR - has not run here before and he's still on the same mark of his last win at Dundalk in September and not sure I can see him winning.
SIGN OF THE KODIAC - His last win was also at Dundalk when beating the admirable Gordon Lord Byron off a mark of 94 by half a length last March. He's still on the same mark now but he's had his chances since and not won.
HAKAM - Was a running on 2nd last time out at Wolverhampton over 5f following 3 runs over 7f - but he's not getting any respite form the handicapper and although he might be thereabouts at the finish I don't think he will win.
ZAC BROWN - This will be his 49th career start but not sure I'm that keen - although he is dropping down the weights.
ASCOT DAY - Has only 9 career starts to his name so is open to improvement. He recently had his first run after a 168 day break finishing last of 9 behind Reflektor. Prior to that he had beaten Boundsy at Newcastle over 6f off a mark of 85 - Boundsy was rated 78 and that rival followed that run up with 2 wins off marks of 82 and 86 at both Chester and Haydock so off 5lb higher there are possibilities for Ascot Day if he comes on for his recent return and he will go close.
FAST TRACK - Has 36 career starts with just the one run here. His last win came just over a year ago off a mark of 85 - he's now on 82. He was beaten 2 lengths by Tropics at Wolverhampton recently but he's 8lb better off with that rival in this so he should be bang there too.
UPAVON - Has 54 career starts and this will be his 15th start here and after winning his first two runs at the track he's never been better than 3rd although he is running at a consistent level. He couldn't win a Class 4 off a mark of 80 when 3rd to Aleef at the track recently and off the same mark he's unlikely to win a Class 3. That race was run in a time 1 min 10.35s.

That leaves us with TROPICS - Although the veteran of the field at 10 years of age he's only had 37 starts to date. He was rated 111 at the start of his 2017 campaign and he's off 92 here having won a Class 3 at Wolverhampton over 6f before finishing 4th at Lingfield when he was swallowed up late as most are. Robert Winston replaces the 3lb claimer here which is a positive move and this former group class performer has another big chance of getting back in the winners circle whilst he's in form.

1 pt win TROPICS @ 4/1 - Bet365, Coral and BetVictor.

Exacta picks - Tropics, Ascot Day, Fast Track.