Tuesday, 5 November 2019
Betting Strategy: Are You Betting on Your Horse to be Backed
It's an interesting question.
We all like to see the horse we have backed supported by a point or two. It helps add to the confidence that your horse is a winner.
But do you bet on a horse simply because you are ''sure'' it will start at shorter odds? I must admit I have seen a lot of two-year-old horses and convinced the price I bet was brilliant value and it's odds-on to be backed.
For a moment, think about this statement. You may have bet on a horse because you were sure it was decent odds. I can pretty much guarantee you didn't bet on it because you thought it was a terrible price.
But how sensible is it to bet on a horse because you are basically waiting for it to be backed. If betting on the exchanges and trading you may only bet because you are looking to mop up a few points or even a fraction of a point if you are betting big money.
But here's the point. Can you ever know a horse is going to be backed? There could be any number of reasons why a horse would be backed or not. I've backed a few horses simply because I thought the price was going to be supported. This has seen a number of incredible bets and some very nice no-lose bets or winners. But also a number of horses that were far from backed. In fact, many drifted markedly in the betting and proved from a value point of view to be incredibly poor wagers.
Betting on a horse in the hope it will be backed can be an inspired or foolish endeavour.
What I find most difficult is trying to assess why a horse may be backed. The problem being that you may be convinced but betting is the sum of the populous and their opinion. There may be a good reason why your selection will be backed. You may have some insight from a trading perspective which makes you confident you can make some easy cash.
However, if you are basing your reason that a horse may be backed just because you like it is probably a terrible idea.
For me, I would bet on a horse simply because I fancy it to go well and happy with the price. If it is backed then that may well bring further confidence or an opportunity to lay some of the bet to cover the stake or, perhaps, lay the bet pre-race at half odds. I have done this plenty of times and had a bets to win a few grand.
Without real understanding, there is no such thing as easy money. And betting on a horse to win compared to betting on a horse that you think will be backed is a very different thing. It takes a completely different mindset, approach, and skills.
You need to be disciplined enough to know exactly why you are betting. Don't fall in between two thoughts or opinions because the chances are you will come unstuck.