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Tuesday 8 February 2022

Harry Findlay: No Value in Betting Odds-on

Harry Findlay is a name synonymous with gambling. 

To be fair, he's been a gambler who lives his life on a roller coaster. I always thought he was a touch too loud for his own good and me being an introvert far too much for my senses. But the losses he has suffered in recent years have tamed his enthusiasm, knocked the stuffing out of him. 

I'm not surprised he is a slightly quieter version of himself. Time, life, problems can have that affect on the best of us. 

For most of his gambling life he loved to bet short-priced favourites. It's no surprise as he detailed there was value in a 1/2f that should have been 2/9. 

I've been trawling YouTube and see Star Sports have a series of 5 videos about the good man. They are well worth a look and he talks candidly about life, gambling and hopes for the future. 

I wish him well. He's a decent bloke.

It's interesting what he said about betting short odds. The value has gone with bots placing bets via algorithms (no emotion) which have stripped away value to a point where he questions whether it is even possible to make any cash. 

It's an interesting thought. 

From watching two-year-old horse racing it always amazes me why punters back odds-ons even though they can take some beating. If they are short odds, I would much rather take them on and back a decent second favourite at 9/2. In fact, if you have a decent second or third favourite they can make a much better alternative. The bookies have a horse at 6/1 and the exchanges have them at 11. That's has to be viewed as value without much thought as the bookies are going almost half the odds for a laugh. It doesn't mean that all are value but when one wins at those magnified odds it has to tell a story. 

Why would you bet odds on?

Each horse must be judged on their merits and I'm not saying there can't be value in any bet because there can. 

However, if finding value in betting odds-on horses is a rare happening then it details there is value betting others.

Take a look at this series of five video and see what you think.