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Thursday 7 October 2010

Can Look Busy get busy ?

Look Busy's recent form figures dont paint a great picture but if you look at the races she's run in she hasnt done that bad lately. She only finished 2 1/2 lengths behind Mister Hughie at Beverley in the Listed sprint and Prohibit and Captain Dunne were 2nd and 3rd and they have both won since with Prohibit finishing 6th at Longchamp last Sunday. She then finished 7th 3 1/2 lengths behind those 2 again in a Listed race at Doncaster when Rose Blossom and Group Therapy were 2nd and 3rd. Back in a handicap now she is running off 5lb lower than in her last one and also gets a further 5lb taken off her back by claimer Slade O'Hara and she has decent speed figures in the book too. She is going to take a bit of faith to back, but at 10/1 or maybe even bigger she should have an ew chance as she goes well on a slow surface.
The race looks set to be run at a fast tempo with the rejuvenated Cayman Fox likely to take them along and this will no doubt suit both Rasaman and The Nifty Fox who both like to come from off the pace and you get that here because there is usually a sprint to get to the first bend.
Noodles Blue Boy ran well last time out and won in a decent time at Leicester as did Fol Hollow when 4th behind Cheveton and the latter is now 1lb lower than his last winning mark when he beat Captain Dunne, so he too can go close to winning.
Its a tricky little race really and I can see Fol Hollow, Noodles Blue Boy, Rasaman and Look Busy fighting it out come the end.

There is a decent Claimer later on the card and the pairing of Nicholls (Father and Son) who have cleaned up in these types of races this year can win again with Sonny Red who goes particularly well with some cut. He is rated 94 which is 15lb higher than anything else in the race, he only gives Titus Andronicus 8lb here but Lee Topliss takes off another 5lb, however Titus Andronicus probably wont be as at home on the going as Sonny Red.
At the forecast price of 7/4 its hard to see Sonny Red being beaten.

At York in the 3.40 Jamie Spencer takes the ride on Oldjoesaid who gets the chance to run off a mark of 80 here, when you think he was running off 107 in 2008 it is some drop. Okay he hasnt been running well and his mark has dropped accordingly, but he ran well for this jockey at Doncaster when a fast finishing 7th beaten 3 3/4 lengths and I would imagine Jamie will be anxious not to leave his run too late this time. He is drawn in the middle and thats usually a good place to be on this sprint course.
However this looks a decent sprint for a Class 4 with 20 runners and Haajes, Russian Spirit and Mango Music have all been performing with credit of late and Strike up the Band is another whose rating has dropped like a lead balloon this year and he will feel like he's loose at home.

In the 3.20 Spencer and Ryan team up again on Esprit De Midas, he ran really well to win at Haydock but then dissapointed badly at Chester but it may have been the course there as you either love it or hate it and he may be capable of a better show back on a more conventional track and at the forecast 25/1 he's worth a look if nothing else.