Thursday, 15 September 2011
Who will get the Bronze Medal ?
Ayr stages the first of the three Cup races on Friday afternoon at 3.55, the ground is currently described as Good to Soft, Soft in places. 27 runners go to post for the third running of this 6f dash and at this course you invariably need a horse that can stay 7f. Baldemar won the race in 2009 but the next year he was fourth from last in the race won by confirmed soft ground lover Cheveton who incidentally makes the cut for the Silver Cup this time around. The stands side was the place to be last season and only time will tell if that is to be the case again and the preceeding 5f handicap make give us some clues on that, but I have to come up with a shortlist for the race so we shall press on.
Mon Brav is still 5lb higher than his last win and seems to have gone off the boil a bit although he probably has a good draw in 27. David Nicholls hasnt been in great from of late but you can usually rely on him here and his son partners Esprit De Midas, who will appreciate any cut in the ground, has won over 7f in the past and is on the same mark as when winning at Haydock last season by 1 1/2 lengths from Lochan Mor when in the care of Kevin Ryan. The stable also has Karaka Jack who has also won over 7f and being drawn in the middle of the pack he has the option of going either way when the gates open. They also run Amenable who features in my "Horses to Follow" section and who ran his best race of the season last time out when a half length 2nd to Valery Borzov and Andrew Mullen keeps the ride.
David Barron is usually well represented in these big sprints, he had Beat the Bell (runs in the earlier 5f race this time) finish 7th in this last year from a poor draw on the day, he won the Silver Cup with Colonel Mak and he was 4rd with Hitchens in the Gold Cup. He runs
(28/1) in this and the latter is a 3y0 that has only run 4 times to date but she has the assistance of Lee Newman who has a better strike rate for the stable than Graham Gibbons who is on the other. La Zamora tends to run a good race, a bad one and then a good one and tomorrow she is due another good one. She was unlucky when 4th at Haydock a couple of runs ago when missing the break and was probably the eyecatcher of the race and she can run off a pound less in the handicap tomorrow.
Looking through the rest they all dont inspire me that much apart from the 10/1 fav
(stall 25) and it could be that if anything just has a good day they could win and it might really be down to the draw for this as that little bit could be enough to get one of them home in front. Im going to side with the higher numbers and I would suggest backing both the Barron horses ew and the fav to win.
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