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Wednesday 4 January 2012

Dubai Racing Carnival 2012

The Dubai World Cup Carnival (DWCC) begins January 5, 2012 and concludes on March 17 and tomorrow sees a 5f Handicap take place at 4.20 for a prize of £42,154 in which 11 runners go to post on the turf track.
The field is headed by three times 2011 carnival winner Happy Dubai who is joint top rated with the former Bryan Smart trained Spin Cycle on 110. The last of the wins for Happy Dubai came off a mark of 111 when he beat Monsieur Joe by half a length and he meets him on 10lb worse terms this time although the latter may need the race not having run for 3 mionths.
Humidor who was much improved during the summer in the UK returns here off 108 under Frankie Dettori who won on him at Doncaster in the Listed Scarborough Stakes in September where he beat Dinkum Diamond by half a length off 102.
Invincible Ash ran 5 times here last season without winning and its difficult to see him winning off 106 on his first run back after 130 days.
Nocturnal Affair ran twice here last season without winning but he was improved on his return for David Marnane and he won the competitive Portland Handicap off 101 in which Addictive Dream was third beaten half a length and a nose which he won in convincing fashion after travelling strongly and it would nt be a suprise to see him go close.
 As on that occasion Addictive Dream receives 4lb however he has since been bought by David Nicholls at the Tattersalls Horses in Training sales for £90,000 so his new owner will be looking to recoup some of the expenditure over the next few months. Certainly he looked on a few occasions last summer as though he could win a big handicap and Nicholls is better than anyone at coaxing out improvement that others cant find.
The 5f trip may be a bit short for Internationaldebut although he has won over it in the past the latest of which was at Beverley but its a stiff old finish there.
Russian Rock won here on the All Weather in December over 6f by 4 1/2 lengths for which he has gone up 6lb however this race may prove a bit tougher for him.
Zero Money won well at Haydock in September and consequently started at 7/1 for The Portland but he could only finish 15th of 21 behind Nocturnal Affair when he had to race on the wrong side of the track, however he shouldnt have any of those problems here.
It should be an interesting race in which to begin to get a handle on the form for the remainder of the sprint races at the carnival and at this stage I would be inclined to have a small wager on Happy Dubai (6/1 with Ladbrokes) who had a recent pipe opener in December