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Wednesday 15 April 2015

Bogart no Humphrey !

Well the flat gets into full swing today with Newmarket and there will be plenty of clues for the future so keep your eyes peeled.

Over at Beverley there is a decent 5f sprint at 3.05 were a number of horses return after their winter breaks. The draw as we all know plays a big part at Beverley and its low numbers that are favoured and with that in mind the selection has to be Kevin Ryan's Bogart drawn 1(7/2).
He was second to Muthmir off an official rating of 93 in last seasons Portland at Doncaster when the winner broke the course record and Muthmir looks likely to be contesting all the top sprints this year.
Bogart's last win came off 97 in August 2013 at York, a little while ago, but he has run some solid races such as his 3rd in the Ayr Silver Cup off 93 in September and the Portland run.
He runs off 94 today and Shane Gray takes off a further 3lb and Kevin Ryan doesnt think that he is badly handicapped in any event.
Astaire showed that the stables sprinters are in good form when 2nd in the Cammidge Trophy at Doncaster on the first day of the season and it all points to Bogart producing a good run.
Others to watch in the race are David O'Meara's Algar Lad and Eccleston, Long Awaited drawn in stall 3 and Desert Ace who has been gelded over the winter.

There are a couple of 3yo sprints at Newmarket. Aidan O'Brien runners are usually feared without any advantages and his representative in the Sales race at 2.55 The Warrior has already had a run and won this season which is more than 7 of his 8 rivals have done.

Looking at Cheltenham there are a few horses on my tracker alert, namely Might Bite(Evens) 2.05, Optimistic Bias(8/1) and Tanit River(14/1) 4.25 and San Benedeto(15/8) 5.30.

Tomorrow is the Group 3 Abernant Stakes at Newmarket and we will look at that then, however it may be wise to look ahead to the Duke of York Stakes on 13th May for which a few bookmakers have prices.
Due Dilligence is the Fav with Paddy Power and Skybet, however he doesn't feature in Ladbrokes list and there may be some doubt as to him running as Ladbrokes have a good relationship with Coolmore.
Going through the other runners at the head of the betting G Force looks like he will start off his campaign in the Temple Stakes at Haydock and I doubt Muthmir will be up to Group 2 level on his first start back having failed to get the better of Tatlisu on his first start last season. Sole Power is better at 5f and is unlikely to run in this in any event. Naadirr was flattered by his win at Doncaster as he was protected from the head on wind. I can't see Danzeno having enough to win having finished 1 place in front of Louis The Pious last time out. Hot Streak and Astaire were well beaten in the Haydock Sprint Cup as was Cougar Mountain.
Of the others Gamesome is rated 100, Gammarth prefers soft and according to Met Office May is going to be hotter than normal. Lightning Moon could be anything but just doesn't have enough experience for this and that for me leaves Music Master who was 3rd in the Haydock Sprint Cup.
According to his trainer Henry Candy Music Master is being aimed at the Duke Of York and has a prep run for it in the Abernant. His trainer says that he has grown over the winter and is in good form.

3.05 Beverly -Bogart 7/2
4.25 Cheltenham - Optimistic Bias (8/1 ew) and Tanit River (14/1 ew)

Ante Post
Duke Of York - Music Master 8/1