Weekend Review -30th March

Well it was a great start to the flat season, we didn't manage to get Dinkum Diamond into a place but on the comments below my Saturday post my brother alias "Wayward Lad" picked the winner in Naadirr.
Naadirr also features along with Tatlisu on my sprinters to follow page(see link above) and he also won at 8/1 on Sunday which was great as I have an interest in him through Middleham Park Racing.
The results on Saturday at Doncaster were certainly influenced by the weather in one way or another. The headwind was very strong and those attempting to lead struggled to last out the distance with those taking cover reserving energy and powering through at the end.
Having been to Doncaster when it's windy I know how hard the wind blows across the track and it would have been a real test for the 2yo's in the Brocklesby but Mark Johnstons Ravenhoe knew his job and started a great 2yo treble for the stable on the day with Rah Rah winning at Kempton and Buratino at Chelmsford. All three won well and it bodes well for the stable over the coming weeks as they have 127 other 2yo's in the yard. 
Johnstons treble must also have been a surprise for team Hannon losing out at Kempton and Chelmsford with their two 2yo's as you would have thought they too would have wanted to get off to a flying start with at least one winner.
Marco Botti's Moohaarib and David O'Meara's Mondialiste, who both ran well in the Lincoln, look worth following. Certainly Moohaarib would have finished a lot closer but for his wayward passage-maybe caused by the head on wind.
There were quite a few hard luck stories over the two days which I've made a note of.

Winners and Losers
This weeks winners and losers accolades go to Charles Hills and Alan King both Weekender columnists.
The "Loser" award goes to Charles Hills for not mentioning his unraced 25/1 3yo maiden winner Pandora in his stable tour and the "Winner" award goes to Alan King who was more up front with the Weekender readers and headlined 14/1 winner Chatez telling us that he had a wind operation, was progressive, should run well and that his official rating of 96 was a fair mark. 

The Cammidge Trophy

The flat season starts tomorrow and the Cammidge Trophy is the first sprint to get our teeth into.

All the runners are coming back from a break so they are evenly matched on that score.

Last season the race was won by Henry Candy with Dinkum Diamond and his post 2014 race comments were as follows  "He ran some good races last year without winning. Sprinters are extraordinary and I´ve always been full of hope that he would come back to winning form. He´s only tiny, but he´s got a huge heart. I see no reason why he won´t stick around Group 3 races this season(2014). As he´s got older, he seems to cope with most types of ground".
He won this first time out last season on soft and the chances are he will have been prepared with this race in mind this time around so he could run above his 10/1 odds on this slightly better going and with the strong Graham Lee booked - he has a definite ew chance.

Jack Dexter won this in 2013 and was third last season. He doesn't have a 5lb penalty this year so has potential to turn the form around with Dinkum Diamond.

It remains to be seen whether Astaire will be better suited by this less competitive field or not. He was campaigned in Group 1 company last season but as we all know there isn't much between these sprinters and I would like to see him get a win on the board first.

Richard Fahey Heaven's Guest finished 6th of 9 last season and he has had this to say recently about his chances this year. "He has a pound or two to find with a couple of these but has come to hand quickly this year, albeit he’s still a little backward in his coat. He’s fit and ready to go".

Marco Botti - Naadirr - "He's in good form and he's working well, I would be a little concerned if the ground turned soft. We have to check the ground to make sure. He wouldn't want it any worse than it is at the moment. He's a fast-ground horse, but he's ready to run and six furlongs is his trip."

Mick Easterby - Aetna - "If it doesn't rain again, she won't run. We'll have a look in the morning. She's working very well and she loves heavy ground."

Jim Goldie - Jack Dexter - "I'm very pleased with him. Things have gone really well this spring. He's obviously not 100 per cent, but he'll be as well as he was when he won it two years ago, so I'm looking forward to it. It looks a very good race this year. There's the Middle Park winner (Astaire), the filly who won the Wentworth (Aetna) and last year's winner (Dinkum Diamond). He's a contender, as they say."

I would imagine Justice Day will lead the field along together with Dinkum Diamond and hopefully Graham Lee can keep him going to the end.

The last 10 years winners are below :

2014	Dinkum Diamond	6	9-5	12/1	Henry Candy	Oisin Murphy	110
2013	Jack Dexter	4	9-5	15/8F	Jim Goldie	Graham Lee	110
2012	The Cheka	6	9-2	12/1	Eve Johnson Houghton	Neil Callan	113
2011	Jimmy Styles	7	9-2	22/1	Clive Cox	Adam Kirby	111
2010	Inxile	5	9-5	17/2	David Nicholls	Paul Hanagan	111
2009	Prime Defender	5	9-2	3/1F	B W Hills	Michael Hills	112
2008	Aahayson	4	9-2	14/1	K R Burke	Fergus Sweeney	110
2007	Rising Shadow	6	9-5	13/2	David Barron	Jimmy Quinn	113
2006	Les Arcs	6	9-2	15/2	Tim Pitt	Neil Callan	116
2005	La Cucaracha	4	8-11	16/1	B W Hills	Michael Hills	103

Given the success of the Cheltenham blog posts I will also be delving into some other big races over varying distances as we progress through the flat season in order to try and build up a bank and of course there is the "Grand National" meeting coming up shortly.

Sprinters to Follow

The sprinters to follow page is beginning to take shape and I will be adding to it over the next few weeks and updating trainer comments on a daily basis so please revisit to keep on top of things.

£3.00 FOR THE WEEKENDER !

It's the first week of the flat and I've just been round to my local newsagent and purchased the  Racing Post Weekender which cost me £3.00.
Although the price is up they still haven't put back in the paper "Weightwatcher" which is a useful tool when looking through and evaluating the form. What you have to do to get that element now is purchase Thursdays edition of the Racing Post which would appear to be some sort of marketing ploy to rake in more money from loyal readers.
On looking through the "Weekender" it's become like an old flat handicapper - the odd glimmer of hope but mostly nowhere !
Lets hope we get an injection of more than just ink soon !

All About Winning !

We are now 1 day away from the Cheltenham Festival and I guess that most of you will have placed all of your bets.
It's A P McCoys last festival and he says its not the taking part that counts but that its all about winning. That may be so for the connections of the horses but for the punter you can get some pretty tasty odds about the places and over the last week or so I've been putting together my own list of bets with this in mind.
Moon Racer, Two Rockers and Toutancarmont are three I've sided with so far and others worthy of a mention over the next few days are :
Qewy - Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle
Pendra and Ned Stark - Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase
Cause Of Causes - Toby Balding National Hunt Chase
Activial, Vieux Lion Rouge and Goodwood Mirage - Coral Cup
Unique De Cotte - Pertemps Network Final
Hidden Cyclone - Ryanair Chase
Camping Ground - Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate
Rich Coast and Goodwood Mirage - Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle
Coneygree - The Gold Cup
Vioux Lion Rouge, Dell Arca and Goodwood Mirage - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle
Monetaire - A P McCoy Grand Annual Chase

All of the above can be backed Non Runner No Bet so you will get your money back if they don't run. O'Neill's Goodwood Mirage and Pipe's Vieux Lion Rouge and Dell Arca are a few that are hard to work out as to what their chosen engagement may be.


 

Go Zac Again ??

A few weeks ago I selected Zac Brown to win at Southwell and follow up his easy Chelmsford success on 11th January- however I didn't take into account his poor draw which he was unable to overcome, as many fail to do at Southwell, and he finished 4th beaten 3L to Perfect Pasture. 
Today he runs in the 4.10 at Wolverhampton over 5f. It is a Class 2 Handicap for a decent prize of £28k.
David Barron also runs Long Awaited and Graham Gibbons presumably had the choice of the two and opted for Zac Brown. Long Awaited came up against Royal Bajan and Megaleka last time out so you would think that Graham Gibbons is convinced that he has the better of  that form.
Boom The Groom brings some solid all weather form into this and Masamah is very good on his day but returns after a break so may just be found wanting today.
The one that could give Zac Brown most to do in my view is Basil Berry who was only just denied by Trojan Rocket last time out over 6f at Chelmsford when he was returning from a 4 month break. He travelled really well in that race and Steelriver and Mappin Time finished 3rd and 4th.
The draw often plays an important role here and Basil Berry is drawn 4 and Zac Brown is in 9 and that may just tip the balance in Basil Berry's favour and he can be backed at the ew price of 6/1 with most firms.

Better show from Ahtoug

Hopefully Ahtoug will perform better at Meydan this afternoon than he did on his last run when he finished a tame 6th, You couldn't back him with any certainty that he will be able to turn it around even though his trainer reported post race that he was the most behind of his horses and dull in his coat.
With a winning pot of £67k its going to be competitive for the assembled field of runners but there doesn't seem to be much depth to the race and we don't really know what the fav Banaadeer is capable of so with 6/1 available for Ahtoug he is an ew option but I will just be watching.

AHTOUG - 1st

Charlie Appleby post race comments : "We were pleased with Ahtoug's first run three weeks ago but we were confident that he would come on for it, which was very noticeable at home.
We brought him out to Dubai a little later compared to last season, so it has taken a little bit more time for him to come to hand. It was a pleasing effort and a great ride by James Doyle.
We will head on to the Meydan Sprint on Super Saturday and then hopefully on to World Cup night for the Al Quoz Sprint.
He thrives in Dubai and the quick, flat five furlongs suits him down to the ground. He is in good nick and enjoying himself over here again."

No Use Pretending !

Pretend made a mug of me the other week when showing improved form and today he goes for his hat trick of wins in the 3.10 at Chelmsford over 6f.
It's only the Godolphin owned geldings seventh start and on his performances in December at Wolverhampton he should take all the beating.
His first win, when beating Boom The Groom and Secondo, was a good an all weather sprint as you can get and although there are a few in the field who are capable of improvement such as Fear Or Favour, Guishan and Fairway To Heaven(in that order) you would hope that the all weather experience he has gained and his race fitness will be enough to see him home.
Clive Cox's Fear Or Favour could be favourably handicapped as he finished second to Eastern Impact on his last start at Newmarket in May after which he obviously had a problem. Eastern Impact then went on to run very well in two very competitive 3yo handicaps and as this is only Fear Or Favours 6th start he could be a thorn in the side of Pretend.
Guishan won over the course and distance last time is another improver but she maybe destined for minor honours today.

Selections
Pretend to win - 2/1 Ladbrokes
Fear or Favour ew 11/2 William Hill and Paddy Power

On another note there have been several conversations on social media since the weekend about whether Dynaste should go for the Gold Cup. His trial at the weekend was as good as any we have seen, granted he didn't win but there was less than two lengths separating the first 3 and any comments about him not staying the trip are nonsense. If Dynaste had won and Many Clouds had finished 3rd would we be saying he didn't stay ? I don't think so.
We don't question winning distances over sprint distances and yet we quibble over 3m+ when one gets beat narrowly in a driving finish - different day different result in my view.

...............................................................................................................................................................
Well it just goes to show, you can never presume anything in racing - who would have forecast Trojan Rocket the winner of a Class 6 handicap race two starts ago winning a Class 2 at 20/1 and the second at 33/1, making an exacta payout of £385.60 a CSF of £527.69 and the trifecta of £3,119.90 !!.
This was the highest rating the winner had ever won off at the age of 7 and his owners must have been over the moon !
Pretend was unfortunately all at sea at this track.

Go Zac !

The application of a hood worked the trick for Zac Brown last time and the headgear will be in place once again as he bids for a quickfire double in the Daily Enhanced "Magic Multiples" At Unibet Handicap at Southwell.

He was switched to the all-weather in October and has since finished 314 at Wolverhampton before winning easily at Chelmsford last time out over 5f.

David Barron appears to have a nice 5f prospect on his hands and while the Fibresand surface is an unknown quantity for him, he clearly has a touch of class and is an improver having only had 11 starts.

Course and Distance winner last time out Scarborough(5/2) probably represents his biggest threat, her course form reading 151131. She was up at the front throughout last time and really dug deep to grind the others down and win going away putting in her best figures to date on RPR and Topspeed. Her trainer thought afterwards that there may be further improvement to come.

Woolfall Sovereign also won over course and distance last time out but he should not get the better of Scarborough on there C and D form.

Selection

2.30 Southwell - ZAC BROWN to win - 2/1

Dubai World Cup Carnival Begins

The Dubai World Cup Carnival begins today at Meydan racecourse and the 5f handicap sprint at 3.55 worth £46,153.85 will be run on the new turf track.

Last years first and second Ahtoug and Hototo line up once again and the latter is 2lb better off. Hototo, Caspian Prince and Ajjaadd should ensure there is a fast pace and hopefully that will play into the hands of Ahtoug who won going away last year and needs something to aim at.

He doesn't look badly treated at the weights and he is the proven class horse in the race.

Altough 7 he has only had 23 races which is light for a sprinter of his age. He ran here 5 times last winter and thrived (15222) culminating in a second in the Group 1 Al Quoz sprint when an unlucky second in course record time to Amber Sky, his rider having dropped his whip a furlong and a half from the finish.

He finished 5th in the Kings Stand on his next start some 3 months later so clearly goes well fresh as his win at Meydan came after a 5 month break.

Selection

3.55 Meydan - AHTOUG to win 7/2 Coral, 32 Red and 888sport. - Finished 6th

Race went as expected with Caspian Prince and Hototo leading except James Doyle didnt have Ahtoug on the pace. According to RP Charlie Appleby reportedly felt that Ahtoug would come on for the outing. It may well be that after coming so close to G1 glory last season at Meydan  that the stables eyes are fixed on that prize this time around.