Wednesday, 24 January 2018

Head for the Tropics!

Another tight knit handicap on the AW at 7.00 on Thursday at Chelmsford.
This one may prove more difficult to find the winner than the other day at Southwell as nothing particularly stands out.

RECKLESS ENDEAVOUR - has not run here before and he's still on the same mark of his last win at Dundalk in September and not sure I can see him winning.
SIGN OF THE KODIAC - His last win was also at Dundalk when beating the admirable Gordon Lord Byron off a mark of 94 by half a length last March. He's still on the same mark now but he's had his chances since and not won.
HAKAM - Was a running on 2nd last time out at Wolverhampton over 5f following 3 runs over 7f - but he's not getting any respite form the handicapper and although he might be thereabouts at the finish I don't think he will win.
ZAC BROWN - This will be his 49th career start but not sure I'm that keen - although he is dropping down the weights.
ASCOT DAY - Has only 9 career starts to his name so is open to improvement. He recently had his first run after a 168 day break finishing last of 9 behind Reflektor. Prior to that he had beaten Boundsy at Newcastle over 6f off a mark of 85 - Boundsy was rated 78 and that rival followed that run up with 2 wins off marks of 82 and 86 at both Chester and Haydock so off 5lb higher there are possibilities for Ascot Day if he comes on for his recent return and he will go close.
FAST TRACK - Has 36 career starts with just the one run here. His last win came just over a year ago off a mark of 85 - he's now on 82. He was beaten 2 lengths by Tropics at Wolverhampton recently but he's 8lb better off with that rival in this so he should be bang there too.
UPAVON - Has 54 career starts and this will be his 15th start here and after winning his first two runs at the track he's never been better than 3rd although he is running at a consistent level. He couldn't win a Class 4 off a mark of 80 when 3rd to Aleef at the track recently and off the same mark he's unlikely to win a Class 3. That race was run in a time 1 min 10.35s.

That leaves us with TROPICS - Although the veteran of the field at 10 years of age he's only had 37 starts to date. He was rated 111 at the start of his 2017 campaign and he's off 92 here having won a Class 3 at Wolverhampton over 6f before finishing 4th at Lingfield when he was swallowed up late as most are. Robert Winston replaces the 3lb claimer here which is a positive move and this former group class performer has another big chance of getting back in the winners circle whilst he's in form.

1 pt win TROPICS @ 4/1 - Bet365, Coral and BetVictor.

Exacta picks - Tropics, Ascot Day, Fast Track.

A 9/2 Winner !

A great start yesterday with Foolaad winning as I expected at the starting price of 9/2. Not sure if he will be able to follow up off his new rating but we will just have to see what the handicapper does.

Some people question speed against class in that class always prevails but it doesn't always work out that way as Foolaad proved. There was every chance that he could run another fast time particularly as he was carrying a stone less in actual weight carried and so it proved.

Today there is nothing to get excited about sprint wise as the most we can look forward to is a Class 7 handicap at 4.40 at Kempton. Form looks sparse but the 3 currently at the top of the market face each other again. Rapid Rise came out on top last time they met but its whether he can overcome a 3lb higher mark which he could well do as he was going away from the other two at the finish last time having made his run from further back - and he has a 7lb claimer on board this time. He's being backed in though as others cotton on.

However its not a race to get involved in and we look forward to a Class 3 tomorrow.

Good Luck! 

Tuesday, 23 January 2018

Don't be Fooled!

Southwell stages a Class 2 sprint this afternoon at 3.05 in which 8 go to post and of those only 5 have run here before and it usually pays to follow course form at this track.

Robot Boy, Compas Scoobie and Shamshom are the three having their debuts at the track. 

Robot Boy usually runs well on his second start after a break - 72121 and he returned at Chelmsford last time out after 117 day break to finish 5th behind Udontdodou albeit he wasn't really pushed there and he can go close.
Poyle Vinnie is now 2lb lower in the ratings than when he won this race last season in a time of 58.09s carrying 8-13-however he returns off a 115 day break and his form after a break reads 0737 so although he may run well he'll probably need the run.
Compas Scoobie has only had the 20 starts so is still open to improvement compared to some of these battle hardened performers but you would need to see how he handles the surface before risking any cash.
Midnight Malibu won here last time out and is 2-2 at the track so clearly handles it. His times for those wins were 57.82 and 58.44 and he should be bang there at the finish.
Tricky Dicky has run here 5 times (11222) but all runs were over 6f and he may be a bit outpaced on the straight track but will be staying on.
Classic Pursuit may struggle here.
Shamshom has not run here before and doesn't appear to be in the best form.
That leaves Foolaad who at 7 is still improving having only had 19 starts. He started last season off  a handicap mark of 64 and he is now on 88. He put up his best performance yet last time out when winning over this course and distance by an eased down one and a half lengths and in doing so recorded a hand time of 57.55s whilst carrying 9-12. He's gone up 6lb for that and he carries 8-11 today so he should in theory be able to record a similar time or better which would be good enough to win this in my view with further improvement likely over this distance.

Foolaad - 1 point win @ 4/1 with several bookmakers.

Exacta Picks - Foolaad, Midnight Malibu, Robot Boy.