Bookmaker's Odds Compiler Flaw that you can Exploit

I'm sure most gamblers can relate to this situation. 

And this is and isn't my pocket talking!

After the race, you realise you made a mistake. Now, you don't need to be Albert Einstein to appreciate the horse lost. I could draw a bell chart, add a littlebit of algebra and a hypothesis if it makes me sound a tad more intelligent than the last tadpole I saw swimming about the pond. 

I'm sure I'm being unfair to the said tadpole who, at least, had the hope of turning into a frog and, even though remote odds, if you have read enough fairytales, a prince if a fair-haired maiden had a fetish for amphibians. 

Anyway... 

How many times does it take to learn something? A lesson? Mistake? I mean, you would think it would be once, twice, three (no not hundred) times and all would be well on Planet Bet. A place where instead of tumbleweed you see big bundles of cash blowing uphill, down dale, even flying through the air like a bullet into bookmakers' satchels who appear just at the right time. Smile. Then run away into a cloud.

You have no problems applying for a visa on Planet Bet. As long as you have money you are a citizen for life. Well, if you keep losing money.  If you win on a regular basis, you will be shown the exit. 

It's a one-way street to a planet that looks pretty much the same as the United Kingdom.

If there has ever been a profession where you live and learn it is gambling. I have enough guidelines to fill an A - Z.

But I still make mistakes that drive me to distraction. 

However, with every minus, there is a potential positive (Visa-Versa). You may be wondering what I am going to tell you that's so important. A way to take advantage of those dreaded odds compilers who so often hammer the value out of your selection. This may sound pretty basic stuff. However, when you get to the basics of most things they are pretty simplistic. There aren't too many scientists in the world but plenty of people making lots of money. 

This one thing is worth noting because it is going to save you money and help you find value in a given race. 

Beware of horses that pull. Especially running over 7f+. You've all seen the race comments:

• ''Keen''
• ''Pulled''
• ''Pulled hard''
• ''F*** that pulled hard'' 
• ''Don't bet on that horse ever again ''Hard''
• Jockey dislocated both shoulders 
• Horse beaten by a strange bundle of money in the shape of tumbleweed

How many times have you tried to forgive a keen horse? You know the beast has ability but ''It's a little bit keen'' (we tell ourselves those words as if it will be magically okay because we saw a rainbow on the way to the racecourse so that must cancel out the 1,000 magpies we saw pecking out the eyes of some old lady who picked blackberries from a hedge.) 

You know where the old lady lived? A couple of stops from Cloud Cuckoo Land. 

Take note of horses that pull because they are a pain in the arse. The crazy thing about these horses is that bookmakers never (ever) seem to factor this ''pulling like a train'' phenomenon into the odds. Perhaps it's a double bluff because they think punters are so forgiving.

''It pulled, but because I had a dream about a Leprechaun last night I think it will be calmer today...'') (This was me last night).  

The beast is priced 11/4 but pulls like a 10/1 shot. How the hell can it start at such short odds? 

The only way that highly-strung beast will calm down is if you throw a handful of sleeping tablets in its path and play a f****** harp.  

Unless you are convinced a keen horse is likely to settle let it go by fast, slow, upside down for all you care, but don't bet on the thing until... 

In truth, we should target these horses as weak links and look for other ''more sensible individuals...calm...placid...'' in opposition. 

If I bet on another ''frighteningly-keen horse, that saw the last poor soul enter an ambulance with dislocated shoulders'' you have permission to kick me up the arse.      

Related post: Do you need to give free racing tips (to give good advice?)

Betting Strategies: Do You Want to Give Your Secrets Away?

I quite like writing an article about betting strategies.

Although, here is the problem. Do I really want to give all my good stuff away? By ''stuff'' I mean data that has taken a lot of work to find. We're not talking ten minutes on the Racing Post. 

It's a pretty average day this time of year for me to work 8 hours sifting through data. Basically, it's like a full-working day to find a scrap of info which may lead to a seam of gold. It is the equivalent to panning for gold. Most of the time you find rocks, sand, the odd fish and struggle with vertigo (that swirling pan). 

Basically, this information is for myself and my brother and related to two-year-old horse racing. The data I have found helps to narrow down the field and pinpointing winners. It is part of the jigsaw puzzle.

I can hear you saying: ''Well, this is all good ''stuff' but when are you going to tell me about these ''winning angles'' so I can put on a few quid and collect a wedge from the bookies?''

One of my friends shared an article I wrote on Reddit which hinted at an idea to make money gambling. It was more to get readers thinking about an interesting point. Someone replied saying they thought the article lacked any value. (Thanks). I guess they were the font of all wisdom (not).

I replied saying why on earth would I want to work 8 hours to give top information away for nothing in return? For all the world I would love to do just that (if you lived in a vacuum). But as soon as the info gets out of the bag, it is three-quarters worthless. 

The thing that gets me is that I am a giving person. I am always trying for others, helping and going the extra mile. Have you watched Judge Judy on TV? One of her favourite sayings: ''No good deed goes unpunished.''

Sadly, those words are true. 

My good friend Eric Winner says there are too many takers. How right he is. I've had people win £2,000 on an each-way treble I gave. I received thanks and interest for more of the same. (I don't need anyone's money) but they didn't even have the heart (certainly no soul) to buy me a drink. So have I got 8 hours to give away to someone who couldn't give a simple thank you? (These people are rare.)

It's a sad fact of life and the reason why we need to keep the good of life and get rid of the bad. I don't think it even registers with people but perhaps, again, that is the thoughts of a caring perspective.

It is, perhaps, too easy to see someone else's time as free and easy. I work on the information especially for my brother who is a plasterer. But would he plaster a couple of rooms for me in a trade for my equivalent time? I wouldn't like to ask. Luckily I do it for myself first and to others who I want to help. 

So the next time someone criticises that you just don't quite give enough remind them that they need to bring something to the table. And not a manky old slice of bread not good enough for ducks.

Do You Need Free Horse Racing Tips (To Give Good Advice)?

They say writers writer, gamblers gamble and cooks drink!

I remember a few years back, I used to write an article or two for this new online platform. The name has been long forgotten. It was run by a lovely lady and I wanted to help support her by writing decent content. It was a mutual thing as I would get a link back to my website which was all fine and dandy. Very few writers are going to spend hours writing decent content for nothing in return. 

There wasn't a problem. It worked. She was happy with the content on what turned out to be a sinking ship simply because so few people contributed. 

I used to write professional gambler articles about Alex Bird, Jack Ramsden, Phil Bull, general thought-provoking articles about gambling theory and a few race reports about two-year-old horse racing which I specialise. 

Quite often I would write a post while thinking aloud and then conclude my thoughts with either a free racing tip or my obligatory '' I'll be taking a watching brief.'' 

It was simply the format I wrote because writers write, gamblers gamble and Delia Smith likes a glass of wine while sunning herself on the Norfolk Broads.

Anyway, after one such post about a race, I noticed a rare comment from a reader or another contributor. 

It read along the lines: ''You clearly have a great understanding of your horse racing niche but are you intentionally trying to confuse people?''

This was greeted by me with a mixture of emotions: humour, as in ways it made me laugh, and irritation because I thought it was a particularly stupid question. My post had taken at least an hour to write - their comment 9.58 seconds. Strangely, exactly the same time it took Usain Bolt to run a 100m World Record in 2009. 

(From a psychological point of view, I was intrigued that the person thought as fast as Bolt ran.)

However...

Why on earth would I be trying to confuse people? It was as if I had some hidden agenda. Perhaps (in their mind) I was being paid £1,000 by William Hill to confuse people so much they bet £2,000 on a loser and we had a business to take advantage of those who read random horse racing threads.

Perhaps they couldn't get beyond the comment ''watching brief''. 

I can tell you now, that comment was made to save people money rather than confuse them into such a state of bewilderment they phoned Tommo's Horse Racing Tips Hotline. 

The would-be annoyance received a polite, intelligent and reasoned if not slightly prickly reply because they had put me into a state of near anaphylactic shock. It was like I was writing from inside a wasp's nest.

I was left questioning myself with the words: ''Why do I bother!''

It reminds me of Billy Wilder's quote: ''No good deed goes unpunished.''

How true.

The crazy point about the race analysis (although no tip was given) was that the whole post was crammed full of information that I had researched from my own data which had taken unending hours and embued with 30-years experience. This wasn't the last three races of magnolia form found on the pages of the Racing Post. If my words had been a painting it would have been a George Stubbs Whistlejacket (1762) not a slab of square beige in a frame from Ikea.

Although the analysis didn't give a full-blown racing tip if the reader had dissected those rich, objective prose each horse mentioned could be appreciated quite easily. In fact, for the majority of runners, it detailed those with little chance to the major contenders. Even though the post said ''watching brief'' in so many words it gave a couple of each-way chances (including the winner). 

I felt like writing another comment to detail this fact but like the horse in another Stubbs'  painting Lion Attacking a Horse (1765), I was losing the will to live. I didn't want to get into a war of words because I can't stand politics. In the end, it's a futile conversation of two opinions the difference being that someone is trying to label you with their perception. To be fair, we can only take all these scenarios with a pinch of salt and be polite as one can be and move quickly on. It is either that or an ugly war of words on a subject which scales into insignificance when you see what is happening around the world. 

In truth, you don't need to give a free horse racing tip to give good advice. The sad fact for many tipsters out there is that their tips are not as good as someone who doesn't really give a tip.

Two, three, four tips detailing a horse, time, meeting and bet taking moments to write as boring as watching that magnolia patch of paint dry in its Ikea frame, which hangs on a beige wall of someone's random house. 

The no-tip analysis is akin to a hand-crafted tapestry worked with golden thread...

Make your mind up which you would rather read.

There's always a Mills & Boon for the romantic at heart.   

Do You Have A Favourite Horse Trainer to Bet?

Horse trainers. 

Big, small, plenty in the middle. 

Why would you want to follow a horse trainer in favour of others? It's the same old story, you will have a better understanding of what they are all about. You will be in tune with the highs and lows but mostly you the opportunities which it brings. 

Know your niche. 

I follow lots of horse trainers. Studying two-year-old horse racing is very much about understanding strength and weakness especially how the trainer works. Because each has its own approach. If you don't appreciate this information you will be at a loss on all fronts. 

One of my favourite horse trainers is Karl burke. I always say if you can't make money following Spigot Lodge. I'm not going into how I make money from this outfit although it isn't particularly difficult to learn about the money trail. 

Which horse trainer is your favourite and how much success have you had?

Good luck to all. 

It Takes Research to be a Successful Gambler?

It's an interesting question. 

Are you the 1% of the horse racing population who does your own research? 

To be fair, I have no idea of the percentage of punters who do their own, independent research or study.

It may be more or less. I guess the first person to ask is you.

I have had this conversation with my good friend Eric Winner. And I know we have all done it, but, hopefully, we have all learned a lesson or two from our gambling pursuits over the days, months and years. 

These words paint a familiar picture. We go to the bookies. Look at the Racing Post on the wall. Read the last three pieces of form. Make a bet. And another loser. 

(It may have won!). 

Let's face it, it's not the best approach to finding winners. 

I wonder what percentage of the population does this day in day out. It may have been going on for years. Perhaps a whole lifetime of betting! The plus side, we simply need the memory of a goldfish (to appreciate the last three races). 

Swim around the tank. What was I thinking? I remember... I bet three starfish to one. Turn left, via the seaweed, under the ornamental bridge, have a quick bite of fish flakes and wait for the race to begin. 

I think it's the Derby. 

A competitive field of three guppies (2/1), angelfish (4/6f), and the outsider one of those suction fish who just sticks to the side of the tank (50/1). 

For God's sake be a piranha!

Everyone has their own way of doing things. Who am I to say what is right from wrong? As I have said umpteen times. The answer to the question is whether you make money or not. If you are winning, then keep doing what you are doing. If you are losing, then you need some aspect of assessment and re-evaluation. 

What troubles me about most people who bet is that many never learn from the day they placed that first bet. 

I don't know about you, but there is something very sad about that mentality. Would you go to college for years and come out knowing the same ''very little'' you went in? 

A little bit more education, certificate even if it isn't a Ph.D.  

But for many, the three-race analysis is the norm. You see it in bookmakers up and down the country. I have nothing against such use as a recap or just to familiarise your mind. But if that is the start and finish of your reasoning then it's a worry. 

You may think: ''So what!''

You're welcome to your thoughts. 

However, if you are expecting to make your betting pay by doing the same as Tom, Dick or Harry then you will probably suffer a similar failure. 

That's why doing your own research is worthwhile. I'm not talking rocket science. I don't expect you to turn a piece of lead into a gold bar. However, with your own research, you may find a seam of gold. Something lying in the pan other than shit. 

To achieve some level of understanding doesn't take much time or effort. 

What do you need?

All you need is an inquisitive mind and the ability to ask yourself a question. 

It might be something as simple as knowing a little more than most about a given horse trainer. You decide - you are going to be the font of all knowledge when it comes to a horse trainer. 

It could be anyone. 

John Gosden to John Ryan. It's your choice. Here's the key to understanding. What do you think 90% of the population of gamblers, race fans, journalists and pundits know about this trainer? 

Find a few questions about the 10% of the knowledge no one is talking about, bothers with or tries to understand. 

That knowledge may give you a chance of appreciating something that most do not. 

Trust me, you are getting nearer the gold.

I love doing my own research. Why do I bother? Well, with a little bit of work I know something which most doesn't. I can clearly see that the information yields a profit or, at least, steers me away from an opinion that guarantees I lose. 

The other day I detailed a thought. 

David Simcock. 

A decent trainer of two-year-olds. He has a fair number of winners. His juveniles often go well on their second start. But here's the question? What can you tell me about his two-year-olds on their second start? 

It's not a trick question. It is just me detailing what knowing or not knowing can reveal. 

It's like one of those questions on Who Want's to be a Millionaire. It may well be the million-dollar question (or at least £500). 

As I write this sentence I'm thinking: ''I know something you don't.''

Should that worry you? You may not give a rat's arse. Good for you. It makes no difference to me. I'm happy to live in my bubble of knowledge. It's a tranquil place, a cozy club chair, TV, laptop, and a bed with a mattress cushioned with a wad of cash.

We live in a world where knowledge is power. 

Did you know that for over 300 horses David Simcock has never had a winning two-year-old on its second start at odds bigger than 5/1?

It didn't take me that much time to find that answer. 

It didn't come from looking at the last three races published in the Racing Post, stuck on a wall in the local bookmakers. 

Funny how we are limited by a lack of questions and understanding. 

It's self-imposed. 

If Bill Gates & Warren Buffett were Gamblers

When Bill Gates first met Warren Buffett, their host at dinner, Gates’ mother, asked everyone around the table to identify what they believed was the single most important factor in their success through life. Gates and Buffett gave the same one-word answer: “Focus.”

Being a successful gambler is exactly the same. 

I have said many times before that principles, discipline and focus are even more important than simply picking winners. 

That is why it is so important to have your own niche. I mean, you may have a liking for a little bit of everything but you know there simply isn't the time to be the Jack of all trades. Do you really want to be the master of none? 

The Flat turf season is just about to conclude (8th November) and I'm looking forward to getting stuck into data analysis for each and every trainer. This helps focus the mind and makes it easier (if that's the word) to pinpoint horses with a better than not chance of winning. It is all about looking in the right direction. And understanding for a horse trainer where the winners start and end is very important. Each potential losing bet may have a very good reason why you shouldn't be betting. Often that comes from a quick look at the facts and figures. 

Of course, all horses are there to defy the odds. That's why every favourite doesn't win. Unless you are a backer of the good old jolly you should be thankful those outsiders pop up here and there. 

I think one or two fancy-priced winners throughout the season can make the world of difference. 

Focus is one of the key factors in keeping you on the straight and narrow. It's like shooting at a target. If you are looking to the right or left, you are likely to miss the objective. 

Good luck to all.

Would You Lay a Horse to Lose £999 to Win £1?

If you use the betting exchanges you will be aware that you can just about bet or lay any sporting event at odds of 999/1. 

For most mere mortals this would be a bet we'd push to one side and say that's a bit too rich for me. Well, the laying part of the bet. I doubt there are too many people who refuse betting £1 to win a grand (almost) if they thought the horse had a fighting chance. I'm not sure if I have ever bet on a horse priced at such huge odds. 

I've seen plenty of people betting/laying horses. 

Would you be tempted to lay a bet of £999 to win £1? How about £9990 to win £10? If your response was negative to the first two options, then I am wasting my breath asking about £99990 to win £100. 

It seems an astronomical bet. Almost a hundred grand to win ten cockles (£10 x 10). Surely, no one lays such bets? 

It's a fact they do. 

To be honest, most people don't have £100,000 in their Betfair account to consider such a wager. So who are these people? Where did they get all their money from? How much do they win? How much do they lose? 

I would love to get an interview with someone who takes these bets day in day out. What image comes to mind? 

The mind boggles. 

Clearly, they don't lack cash on the hip. The bank balance was buoyant before they got into this gambling world.

I follow the two-year-old horse racing and there is often a weak link in a race. Perhaps a small trainer with a horse which cost £500 taking on a favourite worth £1M. There are examples seen on a daily basis. 

This approach to betting intrigues me. Why? Because these people (some of them) are making a very good living from what most layers would view as crazy bets. For example, the other day I noticed a couple of outsiders in a two-year-old race which had very poor form. They came from small stables who weren't recognised as having much horsepower (so to speak). Taking a look at the betting, both had been backed a couple of hundred pounds apiece. So the layer was looking to win £200 - £300 by the time the race had concluded. They may have put the bet up in running hoping to catch a few ''mug punters'' as the horse looked to hold some hope at any stage of the race. 

When you consider these people are laying 999/1 shots like they are going out of fashion, it wouldn't be a surprise to learn they are making £4000 a day. For all I know, they could be making £20,000 a day. 

The only point of worry - if not terror - would come to dawn if/when one of these ''no-hopers'' gets its head in front. (The beast!)

To be fair the layer, if good at their job, maybe confident that the horses they take on cannot possibly win. (Perhaps a bold, if not foolish, statement) 

(You be the judge) 

Is it possible for every no-hoper someone lays to lose? That, somehow, they are correct to the end of their betting days? At which point they retire to the Bahamas to sit on a beach and think about all the money they won?

I guess some layers have done exactly that. 

But surely there is always a fear that one day the slowest horse on earth will sprout wings and shout to the crowd: ''My name is Pegasus and I'm going to f*** you over!''

Years back, I remember seeing an example of this. I can't remember the horse or trainer. It was a relatively unfashionable yard. The two-year-old had run twice and finished last on both starts and looks pretty poor. I'm sure some layers must have pinned the tail to the donkey and renamed this juvenile Eeyore. Anyway, this day the layers got it wrong as the horse ran a race of a lifetime and to make matters worse it was in a photo finish. The betting detailed it was a very close call. But it was favourite to win on the exchanges. 

It won. 

Joy for the backers who got 999/1. Horror and probably a loss which would see most layers living on the streets rather than a penthouse in Mayfair. 

Would you fancy laying a horse at odds of 999/1? 

Even if it meant you could live the life of a king (at least until that infamous horse wins).

Are You Tempted to Bet Odds On?

I guess we have all been tempted.

That odds on looks a certainty. It only needs to go up and down and the money is in your pocket. 

It's money without work!

When did you last take the plunge betting odds on? Today, yesterday, last year, a decade ago...or never ever (I promise).

Was it a good or a bad bet? I suppose that depends on whether it won or lost. Because, let's face it, betting on a short-priced favourite you need it to be numero uno. There's no hiding place. But you know the score. 

Fill your boots. 

Odds on shots are one of those subjects which sways your thoughts from one extreme to the other. We know the horse has ability, it's fancied by the majority of punter and probably 70% of all placed bets on the given race. That in itself it is a positive. If it was a popularity contest it would be a winner. From a statistical point of view, it is likely to cross the finishing line in first place. 

I don't know about you, but every time I don't bet on an odds on fancy they win and when I do they are weighed down by the burden of my pocket money and it all goes tragically wrong. 

Perhaps that is a little bit hyperbolic (I'm sure many a punter has shouted bollocks as Tommo takes pride in announcing your horse is struggling like a rag). 

You know exactly what I'm talking about. 

Generally, these days, I never bet odds on. I'm not saying I wouldn't because the whole point about an astute gambler is that you are open to any bet because working to a mandatory rule only comes back to bite you on the arse. I'm sure if we went back to the 1970s a few red-faced punters have the tooth print of Red Rum on their derriere. I'm not sure if he ever won or lost at odds on but you get the idea. 

It sounds painful in every sense: physically and emotionally. 

Following the two-year-old horse racing season, it seems to me a lot of odds on priced horses get beaten. Certainly, those priced from 10/11 - 1/3f. I think when you get to the realm of horses priced 1/4 or shorter it is difficult to get those on the back foot (although it does happen). 

The problem with betting odds on is that by definition you need over a 50% strike rate to be level. So cranking the odds to 4/9f you need a strike rate of what? (I'm terrible at maths but I know it is an incredibly high rate). 

I know a lot of people say: ''You're buying money''. 

It's probably better than putting your money in the bank! You get 5% on a 1/20f that cruises home. 

If you can make your betting pay then you have no need to grumble. That is and always will be the answer to the question. 

The problem comes into play when you hit a loser. God forbid a couple of losers. All of a sudden you are counting the number of winners you need to be back to even. How many losers can you afford? 

In this day and age of betting in-running, we have gone into a new dimension of odds on gambler. People who are happy to bet 1/100. When you consider someone betting 1/10 in-running you may think they are crazy, mad, foolish, idiots. 

The losers are exactly that. But what about the winners?

Because you can guarantee there are many punters (backers/layers) who are making a tidy profit by doing just that. 

How would you consider them? Perhaps they are simply delaying the inevitable when they get caught by a truly costly decision. 

It's an interesting question. 

Those who make money betting/laying odds on are correct. Well, as correct as they can be for the moment in time they are in profit. Who knows what tomorrow brings. 

I, personally, am very wary of betting odds on because I feel there are better options. However, it is probably foolish to tar every odds on punter with a brush which says it's a mug's game.

Have you ever bet odds on?  More important was it a good bet and are you looking to bet again anytime soon?

Betting Strategy: Are You Betting on Your Horse to be Backed

It's an interesting question.

We all like to see the horse we have backed supported by a point or two. It helps add to the confidence that your horse is a winner.

But do you bet on a horse simply because you are ''sure'' it will start at shorter odds? I must admit I have seen a lot of two-year-old horses and convinced the price I bet was brilliant value and it's odds-on to be backed. 

For a moment, think about this statement. You may have bet on a horse because you were sure it was decent odds. I can pretty much guarantee you didn't bet on it because you thought it was a terrible price.  

But how sensible is it to bet on a horse because you are basically waiting for it to be backed. If betting on the exchanges and trading you may only bet because you are looking to mop up a few points or even a fraction of a point if you are betting big money.

But here's the point. Can you ever know a horse is going to be backed? There could be any number of reasons why a horse would be backed or not. I've backed a few horses simply because I thought the price was going to be supported. This has seen a number of incredible bets and some very nice no-lose bets or winners. But also a number of horses that were far from backed. In fact, many drifted markedly in the betting and proved from a value point of view to be incredibly poor wagers. 

Betting on a horse in the hope it will be backed can be an inspired or foolish endeavour. 

What I find most difficult is trying to assess why a horse may be backed. The problem being that you may be convinced but betting is the sum of the populous and their opinion. There may be a good reason why your selection will be backed. You may have some insight from a trading perspective which makes you confident you can make some easy cash. 

However, if you are basing your reason that a horse may be backed just because you like it is probably a terrible idea. 

For me, I would bet on a horse simply because I fancy it to go well and happy with the price. If it is backed then that may well bring further confidence or an opportunity to lay some of the bet to cover the stake or, perhaps, lay the bet pre-race at half odds. I have done this plenty of times and had a bets to win a few grand. 

Without real understanding, there is no such thing as easy money. And betting on a horse to win compared to betting on a horse that you think will be backed is a very different thing. It takes a completely different mindset, approach, and skills.

You need to be disciplined enough to know exactly why you are betting. Don't fall in between two thoughts or opinions because the chances are you will come unstuck.

Have You Ever Placed An Ante-Post Bet?

I can't say I have placed an ante-post bet for a hell of a long time. 

It was about twenty years back, a filly of Sir Michael Stoute's, probably before his knighthood! (He was made Knight Bachelor in 1998 for services to tourism in Barbados). 

The same year I won a gonk from the traveling fair.

I'm almost embarrassed to talk about the horse. It will remain nameless because although she got to the 1991 1000 Guineas, backed to 9/1 (I think I got 20s) this daughter of Darshaan finished 7th, some seven lengths behind Shadayid, trained by John Dunlop, ridden by Willie Carson for Hamdan Al Maktoum. 

The filly, I backed, was called Dartrey (see, I'm far too honest). 

In truth, I was dazzled by her three-length victory on debut at two. She looked an ideal candidate to shine for (Sir) Stoute and Sheikh Mohammed. We live and learn. 

For me, I don't feel confident anticipating a horse to win a race several months in advance. Obviously, an ante-post bet can be a few days to the race being run. But even before the final declarations, you are the mercy of someone's decision.

My brother, Tony, had much more luck with his ante-post bet when he backed Finsceal Beo to win the 1000 Guineas back in 2007. He bet about £500 at 7/2 or so because he was pretty sure Sander Camillo, trained by Jeremy Noseda, looked a weak link. It proved correct as she didn't get to the race and Finsceal Beo was seriously backed and won the 1000 Guineas priced 5/4f. 

Anyway, that's me dusting down a couple of old betting slips from memory at least. 

As you have probably gathered, I'm not keen on betting ante-post. The main reasons are common sense:

• Often betting on potential rather than proven form
• The fear of injury, regression or change of plans leading to a non-runner
• No idea of the going on the day
• Is there any good reason why the horse will be backed (they often drift out)

In this age of betting exchanges, at least gamblers have the option of bailing out or taking a few points profit if their horse is backed. In the days of betting with no opportunity to trade it really was a matter of do or die. 

If there is any race I would bet ante-post it would be the English 1000 Guineas simply that there isn't likely to be too many surprises. However, you really are on a loser if an unraced three-year-old pops up as a major contender. 

Do you bet ante-post and if so which races do you fancy your chance of winning?

Does the Betting Indicate the True Chance of Winning?

One thing all racing pundits love to mention is market movers.  

You know the score, horses which have been heavily backed or those big drifters. Is finding winners and losers as simple as watching the market? Well, clearly this is a very complex subject and one most punters have little understanding. I say this, because, unless you have statistical data to back up your opinion is it worth a jot?

Being a graduate in Psychology I learned enough to remember this simple maxim: ''Without objective testing theories are only guesses however good.''

Like it or not, that is 100% true. 

Without question, the betting market is telling us something. However, to what extent? Is it enough to make us cold, hard cash or just another one of the many promotional/marketing techniques to sway punters up a blind alley? 

I worry about any information promoted by bookmakers or horse racing publications as most of their revenue comes from bookmakers who are far from unbiased. They have many wonderful ways of addling the mind. 

So what do I know? In general, I have little idea about market movers. It is such a broad topic of conversation that it is difficult, if not impossible, to make a judgment based on fact. I'm sure if someone has the data to back up their opinions. 

My niche is two-year-old racing. 

I'm big on data because it is objective. I'm often surprised what an hour or two of research details. I'd rather understand the chance of XYZ if it saves me wasting my cash on a poor bet. And until we understand what the data is saying we are at the mercy of someone who knows better. Can you afford to be the naive punter who is waiting to be taken advantage of by an informed layer? That's the reason for knowing your niche. You cannot know it all for two reasons:

• There simply isn't enough time.
• Why do you need to know everything when you can double your knowledge by simply doubling your stake.

Each to their own, but I think punters are selling themselves short by betting on everything!

From studying two-year-old horse racing I've learned a thing or two (I still have lots to learn). From what I understand, the majority of horses are priced by the trainer. Clearly, this is related to the level of horse they train. However, each horse is (and must) be judged on its own merit. Even the smallest trainers get a good one if they train long enough. Often they are short in the betting. 

But do they win or lose?

However, there are exceptions to every rule and it is a mistake to consider that every short-priced horse means it is a winner waiting to happen. In particular, one trainer comes to mind. Brian Meehan is an intriguing trainer of two-year-olds and especially debutantes. Meehan's two-year-old debutantes at short odds are poor bets. I'm not saying they can't run a race and be placed but the chance of winning is unlikely. They are, without question, not priced to chance whatever the market may tell you. 

In contrast, Michael Dods is one of those trainers who can spring a surprise with his two-year-old debutantes at huge odds. They go very well at big odds, especially when racing at auction class on testing going. 

So does the betting indicate the true chance of winning? 

It does to a point (probably). To understand the truth of the matter you need to find the data to back up your opinions. It is remarkable how few punters do their own research. This is a mistake and reason why most gamblers are betting on hunches or flawed opinion. If you follow the crowd you will most likely lose. When most people lose at gambling you need to keep away from the opinion of the populous. 

To win at gambling you cannot afford to follow the crowd. For that reason, I would steer away from market mover (backed) unless you have the information to assess this data. In truth, I would rather consider those horses which drift in the market. Once again, this should be backed up with statistical data. 

Research is the key. Very few people bother to dig a little and find that golden nugget of information which sits in the pay dirt just below the surface. 

Good luck to all.

Betting Strategy: The Recipe to the Secret Sauce

Of course, it's important to find winners. Without those, you will struggle to make your racing pay. If your racing doesn't pay or at least break even you really should question what you are doing. 

A small loss per annum may be considered a fair price to pay for an enjoyable, enthusiastic hobby. 

However, if betting costs your big money, then give it up as a bad job. 

It's a funny thing but the understanding, discipline, and method of how you bet can make a big difference to your profits. This new season, I am looking to use the exact information and make much more money. You may say: ''How is that possible?''

Well, it is if you understand your medium. Am I going to tell you how to do it? 

No! 

A few of these posts have been submitted to Reddit and I have received comments requesting a little more data to taste the secret sauce. I don't wish to be mean, because I am a very generous person, but if you have a way to make money are you, honestly, going to reveal it in an article for the world and his wife to take advantage? 

I don't think so. Don't expect me to be giving anything of real worth away in these posts. 

I'm sure many readers will view those words with contempt and question why do I want to read your post. 

However, most understanding comes from a seed of thought. And that, alone, can be worth its weight in gold. 

If you keep losing, those losers are trying to tell you something. Those words aren't meant to be cruel or deceiving. They may seem a little blunt and hard but they are similarly honest and true. They are saying you are looking in the wrong direction. 

You see that winner in the 2:40 Haydock, look and learn why that horse won and you will begin to understand what makes a winner. Refine those skills and you will be looking in the right direction. 

So if you want to taste the secret sauce, I suggest you start making your own recipe or find one from your old gran hidden in a dusty, old book. 
  

What's the Most Money You Have Seen Someone Bet?

It is staggering how much money some people bet. 

The first question which comes to mind: ''Where did they get all their money from?'' It may be earned, inherited or just winnings from a successful life of gambling.

With quick transactions at the racecourse, you are lucky to see any large bets placed. Perhaps if you watch the rails bookmakers like a hawk you may see a few big bets placed. Although few people in this day and age want to walk about a busy racecourse with thousands of pounds in pocket. Most have accounts or their word is good enough to say: '' One thousand to five.'' 

It makes me smile that pickpockets used to be a familiar problem at the racecourse. Some well-meaning commentators would say be careful because pickpockets had struck. You know what I'm going to say...

You noticed everyone checking to see if their wallet was still in their pocket, giving the light-fingered thief even more reason to strike.

Considering how fleeting a bet can be placed on course it is no surprise to appreciate the best chance you have of seeing a big bettor is at the casino. I have seen a couple of punters who bet significant amounts of money at Great Yarmouth and Luton Grosvenor Casino. 

The funny thing is I have seen both men betting like money was going out of fashion and they had their wives with them at the table. Perhaps they had their hand on the purse strings although, from what I saw, that was about as likely as them winning long term. 

I mentioned a bloke named Graham who I bumped into many times at Great Yarmouth. I say bumped into... I didn't have a chance to chat with him bar him commenting that I should have left my bet on number 5 when amazingly it came up three times on the trot. I wish I had left it on too but the likelihood of those potential huge winnings would have been as remote as could be in reality. We are talking 37 x 37 x 37 = 50653/1. I think I would be waiting for a long time and losing a lot of money before I collected £42,875 (the actual odds of winning). 

Anyway, those were Graham's words of wisdom. 

You can read about Graham's Luck on this post: He Won £10,000 at the Casino. Why Stop Betting?

It does make me wonder where these people get their money from. With roulette being fixed-odds it seems a given that he will be losing money long term. Perhaps these people have little interest whether money won or lost.

The next punter was very strange but not lacking in cash. 

This was my first visit to Luton Grosvenor Casino. This venue made for a good night out and entertainment. There was a music act on and a fun crowd. 

I was betting very small money on the roulette table and having some luck. An Asian man was playing, his wife perched at the table drinking a cup of tea. He covered the table with £100 chips and looked to be betting £1,000 a spin. It was hardly Las Vegas but for Luton, he was pretty much a high roller. 

Over a period of an hour or so he lost £15,000. He seemed to be the unluckiest punter in town as he didn't win a jot. I watched him play. What struck me was his expressionless face and behaviour. Win or lose (there wasn't much winning) his expression was the same. I had more emotion at the loss of my £1 chip that he did at £1,000. It seemed very unusual. However, perhaps he had so much money that it really didn't matter. I guess if you bet big money you need to keep some kind of reserve simply because if becoming irritate someone may think it was his last £15,000 rather than pocket money. 

He ran out of chips. Walked away from the table. He wasn't finished. 

I changed up my winnings to three £25 chips and walked to the counter to cash in.  As I got to the kiosk who should be there...

The Asian man getting his hands on more chips. The whole counter was covered in £500 chips, to the sum of £30,000 if not more. 

I have no idea how his evening finished but he certainly didn't lack funds. 

Good luck to all. 

What's The Most Money You Have Bet?

It's one of those questions people love to ask. 

Whether betting small, medium or large sums of cash you need one thing on your side. 

Knowledge. 

At the very least enough knowledge to take advantage of the person who is willing to lay the odds. It may be a given day, month, year, a decade or a lifetime but winning is your goal however easy or elusive. It may come early, in the middle of your life, or at the end. This journey will be littered by a million foolish, brave, seemingly triumphant souls who bet they knew more than the person who was willing to say: ''That's a bet!'' 

If you are wise enough you will win. 

As I often say: ''Knowledge is power.'' 

Consider for a moment the person who takes your bet. Who are they? What do they look like? What life do they lead? How talented are they? What do they know about the subject you wish to bet? In truth, you are unlikely to know but that shouldn't stop you from thinking about this imaginary, often hard, competent and probably wealthy foe. Your knowledge needs to be the mirror image of what they wish to be. You need to consider this person is opposing you to a race to the line. They are not your friend or enemy just an opponent you need to beat. They are just like you.  

For most punters, they don't give two hoots. The main reason being they bet for fun or they have given up hope of making their betting pay. 

Yes, I'm slowly getting to the point. 

Imagine if you were a chess player, would you fancy taking on the old bloke down the road for a bet of £1000. 

If you are just a fair player I would worry who is your opponent. 

However, much depends on your ability. If your name is Bobby Fischer you would be knocking on his door, cash in hand. 

Remember gambling is betting a pile of cash against another person and not just a horse in a race. 

Some people get lucky and win a fortune. But they are simply extremes on the statistical bell chart. 

To hold any hope of winning, your wager needs to be based on skill. If you are more skillful than your opponent you are odds-on to win. If you are better than the general population you are odds-on to win. By the very statistical criterion that we live or die - you don't need to be the best on planet Earth (although it is a bonus if you are).

Always be careful of your opponent because there is a chance you will bump into someone who knows more. 

Personally, I have placed a number of large bets. I'm not going to say too much about the bets but they were within my niche of two-year-old horse racing. I was confident I had the odds in my favour. That factor was proved correct because the majority of the time I won.

I placed several bets up to £2000. Each and every one of those bigger bets won. That may sound very impressive. However, if I told you the full story you would probably think the bets were bordering on insane. They were very logical - the key being knowledge. My insight was proven correct because they made a profit. At times, I was literally on the edge of my seat. A tide of emotion that flickered between winning and losing. I bet with the confidence I would win. It wasn't misplaced.  

To be honest, I felt uncomfortable at times. 

That's the nature of the beast. 

Over that particular year, my bets totaled almost £400,000. 

I suffered a few losses; the biggest being £700. Losing brings a mixer of emotions. Thankfully, I could afford to lose that sum. After a loser, I was always fearful of the next few bets just in case another inflicted more pain. The confidence growing daily until it was back to business. With time, those losing bets fade from the memory (just a little) mingled with good wins, bad losses and days of indifference. The journey continues. Forever a work in progress to keep ahead of the game.

These days, I don't bet so much although next season will be a time to press forward once more. 

Knowledge is power.  

Betting is and should always be a serious business. 

Even after years of experience, polishing that stone, until it shines like a diamond, I am prone to the layer who knows more. Long term, it is very unlikely they will know more but on a day-to-day basis, there can be a limitation. Each loss a good reason to work harder, to understand what went wrong and invest time to nullify aspects of weakness. 

Know your niche. Understand your subject to a point you are confident you know more. Bet with confidence. Look at your opponent whoever they may be and appreciate the journey you have endeavoured. 

Take their bet with the knowledeg that long term you are confident you will win.   

Do not bet for fun.