Can You Win Playing Roulette?

As readers may now, I enjoy a night at the Grosvenor at Great Yarmouth. Shadingfield Lodge used to be a place where Edward VII resided, a friend of the owner. Now this listed building is frequented by gamblers looking to make some ''easy'' cash. 

My cousin Danny, said: ''I sat on the same thrown as the King of England.'' 

I think the lavatories have changed since his day but you never know. 

I am not that keen on betting at casinos simply because they are all about fixed odds which, basically, means long term you are guaranteed to lose. If you watch YouTube videos regarding systems you'd believe that following x,y,z... if a sure-fire winner. I'm pretty sure any mathematician will tell you that it is mumbo jumbo. Even with my ''limited mind'' I've left a few comments stating it simply cannot work. Well, from a statistical point of view you can't win because the house edge means you are odds-against. As it happens, you are better playing roulette that just about any other game. In the UK, in the casino takes 2.7%. It's a minimal sum but £27 in every thousand soon adds up. 

I only bet small stakes at the casino and play roulette, which is boring as watching paint dry after a couple of hours. Well, unless you're winning then it's all the fun of the fair. 

Believe it or not, but I have won decent money. I have returned a profit the last eight or nine times I have been the Grosvenor at Yarmouth. If you get lucky and win early in the evening you can either win or lose a small amount. 

There is no logic to how I play but it does seem to work to a point. I look to see which numbers have come up in the last twenty spins and chose one and simply bet on that number religiously. I bet no more than £50. Either 50p or £1 chips. So you can see it is very low key. I could bet a lot more but I feel as though I'm tempting fate and for the most part it is just a little bit of fun on an evening after going to the races. If you get lucky early and your number comes in you are pretty much guaranteed to be a winner or little to lose. 

If you have a number pop up a few times you can easily go home with £100+. 

We have been to the Grosvenor Casino at Great Yarmouth many times and it really is a splendid location. If you take your ticket from the horse racing you get a free £5 match bet and free alcoholic drink. So, basically, it is the equivalent of being given £10 to turn up. Clearly, they hope you lose your shirt but if only betting small stakes you have turned the house edge into a small profit with a free £10 in the mix. 

Perhaps that is the reason I have made perhaps £500 profit over the last couple of years. It is something and nothing. However, I would rather be winning £500 than losing it. Considering most punters lose it is a moral victory. 

If you are in Great Yarmouth or the bordering towns and cities it is a place worth of your time. The listed building is a pleasure to all these modern casinos which sit snuggly in a box. 

If you have a story to tel about winning or losing at the casino I would love to hear. 

How Long Does it Take to be an Expert Gambler?

Psychological research has proven it takes 10,000 hours to be an expert in a given skill. 

How long? 

Just over 416 days. 

If you studied day and night! 

Broken down to 8-hour days, it would be 3.4 years. 

Considering that would be the equivalent of a full-time job (and some) you are talking more like four or five years to achieve the mantle of an expert within your ''skill''. 

However, there is a variant in the level of expertise. Consider an expert chess player. You may have someone who is a smart club player to a Grandmaster chess player. The likes of Bobby Fischer (1943 - 2008). These rare talents could be concluded as exceptions to the rule. On a statistical criterion, they would be in the top 1%, and more likely a fraction of a percent. There are 800 million chess players in the world and only 1500 Grandmasters. So the percentage chance of being a Grandmaster chessplayer is 0.0001875%. That is probably the chance of Joe Bloggs beating such a player.   

Clearly, chess is a complex game. To be a quality player (better than most) takes skill and innate biological capacity. Like so many talents, it goes beyond time spent learning. But consider this to gambling. To achieve a skill of lofty expectation you need to find a niche and hone your skills. There are many types of poker players, although all playing the same game, same cards, and percentages. But the variety of skills, to beat your opponent(s) can be many and varied. In this day and age, players view their skills including chance on a statistical level and psychology to understand tells (to know a bluff when they see one or try to hide their bluff like a master chess player).  

Horse racing is a very open-ended subject/niche from a gambling point of view. It has an improbable number of variables. But, as seen with the psychology hypothesis, you need to limit the number of variables to improve your chances of winning. That's why it is important to find a niche. Each to their own, but the approach of thinking you can bet on anything and everything horse racing is a ridiculous idea. Why? Simply because there isn't enough time to do all these things. To master a broad subject matter compared with something specific like your chosen subject on Mastermind. In truth, you don't need to know everything from a global perspective. If you know your niche subject well you simply need to double your stake rather than double your skillset. It makes sense. It is the equivalent of doubling your brainpower. 

When you consider it takes 5-years to be an expert within your chosen niche within horse racing betting, (in truth, it will take much longer) you don't have time to waste. Also, this expertise is hard-fought. You need to have a plan, idea, assumption (at least) which takes you on a journey that separates you from the crowd. You cannot afford to follow the crowd, because statistically and logically, it would seem very unlikely you can defy the odds.

Your understanding should be carefully assessed. You may wish to follow a blind approach but it is a wise decision to have an understanding of your progress. 

To be a successful gambler is similar to being a top-class chess player. It reveals itself in the confidence you have in beating your opponent or layer. You are pretty certain, if not almost guaranteed, you will win long term. 

If you don't look at your opposing number and feel you can win you really need to hone your skills or, at least, take on an opponent you are confident you can beat. 

Good luck on your journey.

Why Do People Bet On The Horses?

In many respects, this sounds a ridiculous question. 

People must bet to win. But when you consider that most punters lose when betting on the races you have to question what are the other reasons beyond making money from your daily gamble. 

I'm not sure the exact percentage of punters who make their betting on the horses pay. It must be a small percent. They do so by being better than most layers, whether bookmaker or random bloke playing the exchanges. 

So if it isn't for the money why do people bet?

Often for the buzz. You go to the races and it adds a bit of fun to proceedings, especially if you back a 100/1 winner. It does happen. In fact, if lady luck walks your way, you can win a fortune with a small win accumulator. 

I know you won't be betting like this or very unlikely to win but did you know if you had a £1 win accumulator of 20 even-money favourites, you would be a millionaire. 

So many people bet for the buzz. Betting for fun can be just that but it can lead to problem gambling and ruin people's lives. For that reason, I would always say to be careful when betting and question your reasoning for doing so. 

Boredom is another reason why people bet. In this computer age, you can bet on your laptop, mobile phone or just walk to the bookies. Whatever suits you can place a bet (often) far too easy. 

Whether you bet for fun or profession it pays to build your knowledge before getting stuck in with real hard cash. 

Betting Strategy: Which Niche Is Best?

In this modern world of betting - there are literally thousands of ways to make money. Yes, that's correct to make your betting pay. 

To make money gambling is the same as any worker in their trade or business. They make money simply (the hard way) by learning their trade. The expert in any business makes more than the novice. They have a greater understanding by way of experience, talent or knowing someone/thing which affords privileged information. 

It is always better to be the source of your knowledge. Because if not, you are reliant on someone else and mostly they will always want their pound of flesh or cold, hard cash. If they hear you are making £10,000 a week gambling and you are paying them £1,000 for the info, don't be surprised if they knock on your door for more money. You are at their mercy. And, to be honest, most people aren't keen on making people money for nothing. 

How do you make money gambling? 

It's simple. I can imagine you are all ears. Well, the theory is simple. You need to know your niche well. You need to understand to just a level that you can buck the trend of following the crowd. For instance, instead of betting on the favourite in a given horse race, you are searching for a huge price winner whether win or each way. Now, knowing that isn't easy. Perhaps one in 20 races see a big price winner (20/1). The angle being, that if betting on the exchanges you will be getting double or treble the odds given by traditional bookmakers. You can see the advantage and logic behind such reasoning. If you can find a way to understand how to select horses that will run big races at huge odds, and one in so many wins, then you could well be in profit. In truth, it can be any sport or niche within your chosen expertise. Unless you are an expert within your niche you will not win simply because there will be a layer who knows more. 

This is the whole philosophy. 

It's the same as playing chess. If you know that old bloke down the street will give you a thrashing week in week out, you need to raise your game. In that sense, gambling/winning has nothing to do with money. In fact, the more you imagine it is about betting money the more you will lose. It is a game of knowledge first - betting second. It astounds me how little seasoned gamblers understand. They just don't learn from day one to day one thousand (I was going to say one million but the average life of a man is 29,000 days (80-years-old). Would you go to university for three years and return with the same level of intelligence as when you started? I imagine not. You would be thrown off the course before you got to the point of completion. You would be told to try harder, work harder and achieve a higher standard.

Each to their own. 

It makes no difference to me if you learn or standstill. In many ways, if you are a layer of horses, I hope you don't know as much as me. 

The best niche is the niche you enjoy and one which you follow and enjoy with a passion that sees you through the highs and lows of your gambling journey. 

I remember years ago watching a TV programme about a bloke who worked in the antique trade. He summed it up nicely when he said: ''I don't need to know everything, just a little more than most.'' 

And when you think about it, that is true for all aspects of life whether gambling, business or profession.  

If you know your niche well you have an opportunity to succeed. 

You may see any number of people working in a given trade. Consider a salesman selling iPhones. You can guarantee someone within the company sells more than anyone and makes a commission probably five times that of your average seller. They have learned what sells. They are better. Somehow, they have crafted their skills to a point that others question who they do it. 

That is exactly where you need to be. 

Dayjur: The Horse Who Jumped Shadows

Think of a sprinter...

 A horse so fast it captured the attention of fans across the globe. A class act crowned a champion but still, to this day, assessed with a measure of hard luck for an act that saw him lose a race he should have won.

For those who love their sprinters, there is only one horse who comes to mind. 

Dayjur.

He was born on the 6th February 1987. This American-bred son of Danzig out of a dam called Gold Beauty. Bred in Kentucky. Dayjur raced under the ownership of Sheikh Hamdan Al-Maktoum. An expensive yearling purchase for that decade costing $1.65M. Considering such an outstanding horse had total earnings of £327,280 it details his incredible price tag. 

The association of Dayjur went hand-in-hand with his trainer Major Dick Hern, who had been seriously injured in a hunting accident in 1984 which left him wheelchair bound. Both man and horse had a will of steel. 

This brown horse made his two-year-old debut at Newbury on the 15th June 1989. His reputation was tall - he started 8/15f. He won ''easily'' by a length. However, his second race at Listed class didn't go to plan when he was beaten by half a length at odds of 8/13f by Rushmoore, trained by Clive Brittain. 

At the end of the two-year-old season, he had a wind operation (to improve his breathing).

In a relatively short career of eleven races, his three-year-old season would be his last. 

However, this season would give him credit as one of the greatest sprinters of all time but, in the process, break the heart of his trainer and race fans around the world. 

Once again, Dayjur suffered disappointment on his return to racing in 1990. Major Dick Hern had him earmarked for 2000 Guineas (which proved to be a mistake). Racing over 7f in the European Free Handicap saw him disappointing to finish seventh of ten runners. 

Plans were quickly changing. 

Dayjur was dropped back to 6f and given a confidence-boosting run at Nottingham. However, he was beaten a head by Tod, at Newbury. 

At this stage, he looked far from a supreme talent. 

The Major hadn't lost faith. In fact, he entered Dayjur for the Temple Stakes at Sandown over the minimum trip of 5f. 

His jockey, Willie Carson, led from start to finish - winning by two lengths in good style. 

Now connections knew they had a serious horse on their hands and all illusions of him racing beyond sprint distances were forgotten.

In June, he won the King's Stand at Royal Ascot by two-and-a-half lengths although Major Hern was concerned about soft ground. The runner-up, Ron's Victory, was many lengths clear of the third and then went on to frank the form by winning the Diadem Stakes by ten lengths. 

Dayjur was made 8/11f to win the Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1) racing over 5f at York. He won by an easy four lengths and achieved a course record of 56:16. The Racing Post comment stated: ''very impressive''. (The only horse to beat his time is Borderleescott  (56:09) in 2008.) 

The latter part of Dayjur's career was coming to a conclusion. A few races to add to his credentials as being a true sprinting legend. 

In September, connections decided to attempt six furlongs in the Ladbroke Sprint Cup at Haydock. It was a stiff race with highly-rated Dead Certain a major opponent. Could Dayjur last the extra furlong? 

He led from start to finish. Going clear at the two-furlong pole, he held the late challenge of Royal Academy to win by one and a half lengths. 

To boost the form, Royal Academy went on to win the Breeders' Cup Mile in the United States. 

Dayjur won his final race in Europe when beating four rivals in the Prix de l'abbaye at Longchamp, France. 

Winning, and being eased at the line, Dayjur appeared to jump a shadow cast across the course!

By this time Dayjur had been heralded a sprinting sensation. He would represent Europe by travelling to the United States of America to contest the 1990 Breeders' Cup Sprint, at Belmont Park. A wide draw made life difficult. However, a gutsy Dayjur contested the lead and then headed Safely Kept and looked to have the race sealed. In the closing strides of the race (heartbreaking) Dayjur saw a shadow cast across the track and jumped losing momentum. Then, unbelievably, jumped another shadow at the finishing line. He lost by a neck as the filly took advantage of his ill fate. 

Dayjur Bio: (6th February 1987 - 25 September 2013)

Race record: 

11 runs, 7 wins, 3 seconds and unplaced on one occasion

Awards: 

British Horse of the Year 1990
European Champion Sprinter 1990 

What are your memories of this great sprinter? 

Related stories: Safely Kept Sprints From The Shadows To Defeat Dayjur

Related video: Dayjur King of Sprinters 

How Fast Can A Thoroughbred Horse Run?

You may have seen the post we published on this website: Man Vs Horse. It wasn't a pretty picture come the finishing line. Olympic medalist Jamie Baulch raced a thoroughbred horse trainer by Brendan Powell called Peopleton Brook. The contest took place at Kempton in a 100m sprint. 

The result? 

Peopleton Brook sauntered past Baulch after 40m (sorry, Jamie, 60m) and cruised to an effortless victory. I very much doubt the bookmakers were laying odds on the horse, while I imagine a few punters backed Baulch at odds of 1000/1. (I have no idea if a bet was struck!)

Baulch said: ‘I am obviously disappointed, but all credit to the horse,’ who won an Olympic silver medal for Britain in the 400m relay in Atlanta in 1996.'' 

The Olympian ''raced'' the horse for charity with £10,000 shared between the Injured Jockeys' Fund and Barnardos. 

Believe this or not, but it is reputed Jessie Owens, who won four Olympic gold medals, famously beat a number of racehorses over a 100m sprint. However, even Owens had to admit he chose horses that were so spooked by the sound of the starter's pistol that he gained a headstart. Sadly, he only raced horses as a publicity stunt to make money saying: ''People say that it was degrading for an Olympic champion to run against a horse, but what was I supposed to do? I had four gold medals, but you can’t eat four gold medals.’' 

In truth, Usain Bolt would have little chance of beating a thoroughbred horse over 100m even with his world record time of 9.58s achieved in the 2009 World Athletics Championships in Berlin on the 16th August. 

I very much doubt he would beat a fit Shetland pony. 

Your average thoroughbred racehorse can run 100m in about 5 or 6 seconds. Basically, twice as fast as your decent sprinter. 

However, thoroughbreds have often been beaten by greyhounds over a 100m sprint. 

With regard to other animals, the fastest of them all is the cheetah can run at 60mph. At top speed, it would run 100m in less than four seconds. (It would be slower from a standing start).

Jamie Baulch should thank his lucky stars he didn't race against a lion, because it may not have run past him but jumped on his back and eaten him alive! 

Winning Brew holds the Guinness book of records for the fastest thoroughbred horse over two furlongs at 43.97 mph. Although Quarter Horses run faster over a shorter distance.  

Photo: Olympic gold medallist Jesse Owens at the starting line before beating harness racer The Ocean, at Bay Meadows, California, in a 100-yard sprint in 1948

Which Stallions Have The Highest Stud Fees?

It's been a big day for stud fee announcements...

💰 Dubawi - £350,000
💰 Frankel - £275,000
💰 Flightline - $200,000

Which would you choose? pic.twitter.com/eTWFrVjsAN

— World Horse Racing (@WHR) November 9, 2022

Horse breeding is big business.

It sounds easy. You send your broodmare to visit Frankel. And wham, bam, thank you mam, pay £275,000 for what I imagine is a few minutes ''work''. To be honest, I have no idea what goes on behind stable doors, but I guess there is a lot more to it than mother nature. Perhaps that's exactly how it goes.

Anyway, that certainly is the way to make money. Frankel won 14 out of 14 races and amassed total earning of just under £3M. It sounds a lot of money. However, each loss on the racecourse could actually cost money. The stallion fee of £275,000 may have gone down if he had lost a couple of races. Also, a horse may sustain an injury on the gallops or the racecourse. A huge loss of not only a life but money when you consider all of those £275,000 invoices disappearing in a puff of smoke. 

You can see the truth of the financial matter when you consider Frankel only need to cover 17.1 mares to earn £3M in stallion fees. When you take a look at 2017 yearlings, Frankel sired at least 94 offspring. This totals an amazing £16450000 (£16M). 

Take a look at this year's 2019 two-year-old offspring by visiting Juddmonte.com.      

You can understand why breeding is such a prosperous avenue for a talented horse which makes their mark on the racecourse. It is the reason why some two-year-olds are retired from racing after that first year simply because it makes financial sense. For example, Zebedee, trained by Richard Hannon in 2010, raced just seven times, achieved four wins and total earning of £162,819. A stud fee of 7,500 euros doesn't sound a fortune but it is a very wise investment for owner Mrs Julie Woods who purchased Zebedee at the yearling sales for 70,000 guineas. When he had covered 133 mares, he had earned a cool 1m euros. (A year or twos work.) 

Frankel concluded his racing career on the 20th October 2012 when winning the Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1). He was just four years old. 

At a rate of £16M per years, he has probably earned Juddmonte Farms well over £100M. And he's only just getting started. At the time of writing, he is eleven-years-old. When Frankel could be expected to live until his late teens if not much older, you are talking of a horse with the potential of earning £200+M. 

But how do other stallion stud fees compare to Frankel?

Well, even though you may imagine such a huge fee of £175,000 is quite amazing, he is very affordable compared to others. 

Admittedly not too many stallions cost more but there are a couple which springs to mind. 

Dubawi is now seventeen years old and assessed as the world's leading sire over the last three years. The sire of six G1 winners in 2018. In fact, he is the only British stallion to sire over 100 Group Winners. 

His stud fee for 2019 is £250,000. It is a staggering figure built on the reputation of a super stallion when you consider he only run eight times, winning five races and achieving total earning of £699,341.  He retired from racing at the age of three. 

Now £350,000.

The stallion of Frankel, among many horses, is Galileo who has remarkable success. His stud fee is simply detailed as ''Private''. 

We can only imagine it is a sum nearer £300,000.  

Sadly Galileo has passed away since this article was written and many of the sire fees either higher or lower. Updated Frankel from £175,000 - £275,000. 

Lots of money.  

What is the Shortest Distance Thoroughbred Horses Race?

I follow two-year-old horse racing, so the early part of the season all juveniles race over the minimum trip which is five furlongs. This is most likely to do with maturation and not wanting to stress the growing limbs of thoroughbred horses in their formative racing year. This distance steadily increases as the season progresses. 

From a betting point of view, I quite like sprint racing. I do believe it is easier to assess a horse which, let's say, runs for a minute over a further distance. My good friend Eric Winner knows a lot more about sprint racing than I will ever understand and has his own rating system because he states (and knows) that standard median times published by racecourses are fundamentally flawed. 

I know Eric has told me his ratings work very well for sprinters and that he could use this process for horses running up to one mile. However, the further the distance the more difficult is becoming to predict the outcome. 

That sounds logical. When you consider how many races beyond the minimum trip are run tactically or simply that no one in the field wants to lead. 

In many ways, I enjoy the two-year-old sprint races best. It adds even more life into the race when on a turning track. I do think running over five furlongs on a turning course can seem like an even shorter trip. It is probably that horses save a little bit of energy when running around a bend. I have seen a good few sprinting two-year-olds which have struggled to get the five-furlong and could be classed as a short runner win quite well at courses such as Kempton, Chelmsford & Wolverhampton. This is especially so when starting from a low draw.  

It is interesting that most thoroughbred horse racing from around the world has a minimum trip of 5f. However, I did notice a few of Wesley Ward's two-year-old which come to race at Royal Ascot started their career at Keeneland. They have an official distance of four-and-a-half furlongs. The likes of Lady Aurelia who won the Queen Mary Stakes (group 2) by seven lengths back in 2016 won on debut in the US [Keeneland] in a time of 50.85s. 

The fastest horses in the world are sprinters.

Related post: Klute The Fastest Horse In The World

Bill Turner Returns With Brocklesby Hope Hell Of A Joker

Bill Turner is synonymous with sprinters. He is known as a horse trainer of two-year-olds, especially the Brocklesby Stakes, which is the first juveniles race of the turf. 

Sadly, in recent years, this able trainer has struggled with a lack of horse numbers. The man who hit the headlines for riding a zebra to the pub. The Devon-based handler has been blessed with many a talented horse including The Lord has struggled to attract a two-year-old string to do him proud. With fewer numbers, competing against bigger stables who make hay while the sun shines. 

Bill Turner has won the Brocklesby stakes a record six times they include:

1996 Indian Spark 
2002 The Lord
2006 Spoof Master
2008 Sally's Dilemma 
2011 He's So Cool 
2013 Mick's Yer Man 

This year's Brocklesby Stakes 2019 saw Show Me Show Me winning this race and going on to compete at Group class, for Richard Fahey and Ontoawinner racing syndicate. 

Bill Turner's Hell Of A Joker was priced 10/1 but finished down the field in fourteenth place. It must have been a bitter pill to swallow after all those years of success. I'm sure Turner feels that every year is getting harder which must be so frustrating. 

Hell Of A Joker is running at Chelmsford 1:35 (14th September) and priced 66/1 with bookmakers. This brown colt is a son of Hellvelyn makes his third start after finishing down the field on his second start at Beverley back in April. 

To be fair, this doesn't look the strongest of races. Hell Of A Joker showed very good pace last time out before tiring rapidly in the final furlong and needs to have matured to have any hope today. 

From a low draw, on a turning course, it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see Hell Of A Joker lead. Whether he can run to line is a matter for debate. 

It would be great to see Turner have a smile on his face if this colt could prove his thoughts about the Brocklesby weren't unfounded. 

Man Vs Horse (No Contest)

Horses run fast.  

Man Vs horse...we don't even need a bookmaker to chalk up the odds, hey? Any odds. Even a three-legged horse would beat the fastest man on earth.

Can you remember when Olympic Medalist Jamie Baulch went to Kempton Park (2010) and took on Brendan Powell's Peopleton Brook? You'll never guess who won! 

A Shetland pony would have given Usain Bolt a run for his money. People are thrilled by speed. The fastest of their breed. A horse can run about 40 miles per hour. What about homosapien?   About 30 miles per hour. I think Donovan Bailey, rather than Usain Bolt, achieved the fastest speed at about 31 miles per hour (this may be wrong). However, Bolt's world record of 9.58 seconds reveals an average speed of 23.35 mph. The standing start lowing the top speed. 

Greyhounds are fast. But are they faster than thoroughbred horses? Well, in the United Kingdom a top greyhound raced a top racehorse over two furlongs on a turf course. The greyhound won by seven horse lengths. 

The fastest land animal is the cheetah. Once proclaimed to be able to run a top speed on 70 miles per hour. In fact, this turned out to be wrong. There has never been a cheetah that recorded a time over 60 mph. Most run in the mid to high 50s. 

Related stories: Baulch Not Long Faced Despite Horse Defeat 

YOU HAVE TO WATCH THIS...

    

Brilliant.